FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd December, 2013

Last analysis expected that a second wave correction was over, but a clear channel breach and a clear five wave structure upwards on the hourly chart was required before I had confidence in the target. We did not get a clear channel breach nor a clear five wave structure upwards.

Movement below 6,708.52 invalidated the hourly wave count.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count sees the FTSE in a fifth wave upwards at intermediate degree which should reach 7,103.67 minimum, and most likely above.

Upwards movement for minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (5) is ambiguous. It can be seen as either a three or a five. This wave count sees it as a five.

Downwards movement for minor wave 2 is now a complete double zigzag. The second zigzag in the double made only a slight new low below the first, but did move price lower.

At 7,406 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This target is still now about 20 trading days or sessions away.

Within the current downwards correction of minute wave ii at 6,526 minuette wave (c) would reach equality with minuette wave (a).

Within minor wave 3 minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of the minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 6,316.91.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This 2 hourly chart shows the entire structure of minute wave ii.

Within it minuette wave (a) unfolded as a leading expanding diagonal. All its subwaves are zigzags, as they are most commonly.

Within minuette wave (c) the structure is incomplete, and I would expect more downwards movement. It looks like it may be unfolding as an impulse which would provide alternation with minuette wave (a).

I have drawn a parallel channel about minute wave ii using Elliott’s technique for a correction. Draw the first trend line from the start of minuette wave (a) to the end of minuette wave (b). Place a parallel copy upon the end of minuette wave (a). I would expect minuette wave (c) to find support at the lower end of this channel, and to be very likely to end there. When the channel is clearly breached by subsequent upwards movement then I would expect that minute wave ii is finally over, and the next wave upwards should have begun.

The next wave upwards is a third wave of a third wave, and I would expect to see a strong increase in upwards momentum.

2 thoughts on “FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd December, 2013

  1. Leading diagonals have to have a 5-3-5-3-5 structure not a 3-3-3-3-3 structure as shown on your 2 hour chart.

    1. No.

      From “Elliott Wave Principle” by Frost and Prechter, 10th edition, page 87:

      “Waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 of an ending diagonal, and waves 2 and 4 of a leading diagonal, always subdivide into zigzags”

      and page 88:

      ” Waves 1, 3 and 5 of a leading diagonal usually subdivide into zigzags but sometimes appear to be impulses”

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