Monthly Archives: December 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th December, 2013

Last analysis expected more choppy overlapping movement for the continuation of a fourth wave correction. This is exactly what has happened, and we have another small red candlestick for Monday’s session.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th December, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th December, 2013

Last analysis expected choppy overlapping movement to begin and last for five to eight days. Friday’s session was very quiet and produced a small red candlestick which fits nicely with the wave count.

The wave count remains mostly the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

S&P 500 daily 2013

This wave count has a higher probability than the bullish alternate. Upwards movement over the last 4 1/2 years subdivides best as a zigzag. If something is “off” about the supposed recovery then it must be a B wave because there is plenty that is off in this scenario in terms of social mood.

We should always assume the trend remains the same, until proven otherwise. This is a huge trend change. I will assume we are yet to see new highs while price remains above 1,646.47.

Minor waves 1 and now also 2 are most likely complete. Minor wave 3 upwards may have begun. I have drawn an acceleration channel about minor waves 1 and 2. Minor wave 3 may have found resistance at the upper trend line and may have ended there. The lower trend line should provide support for corrections within minor wave 3.

We may be about to see a larger fractal at minor wave degree of the structure within minor wave 1 at minute wave degree; there the first wave was extended, the third wave was shorter, and the fifth wave was shorter still.

Intermediate wave (3) is just 0.76 points short of 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). We may not see a Fibonacci ratio between intermediate wave (5) and either of (3) or (1).

Intermediate wave (1) lasted 18 days. So far intermediate wave (5) has lasted 53 days. It may last a total of a Fibonacci 89 days which would see it end on 10th February, 2014. However, Fibonacci time relationships are not very reliable for the S&P. This is a rough guideline only,

At super cycle degree the structure is an expanded flat correction. Within the flat the maximum common length of cycle wave b is 138% the length of cycle wave a, and this is achieved at 1,858.03. When cycle wave b is longer than the common length of cycle wave a then the probability that an expanded flat is unfolding would reduce and it would be more likely that a long term bull market is underway. Above 1,858.03 I will swap this main wave count over with the bullish alternate.

S&P 500 hourly 2013

Friday began with a slight new high, and this fits best as an end to minor wave 3. It still looks like minor wave 3 is complete and has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1. This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio exhibited between minor wave 5 and either of 3 or 1.

Minor wave 2 lasted seven days and was a shallow 26% zigzag. Given the guideline of alternation I would expect to see alternation for minor wave 4 in structure and / or depth of correction.

At this early stage it is impossible to tell which of the 13 possible corrective structures minor wave 4 will unfold as. It is only possible to say that a zigzag is the least likely. Some possible structures, such as an expanded flat or running triangle, may include a new high above 1,844.85 and so there is no upper invalidation point for this fourth wave.

Minor wave 4 is quite likely to unfold as a flat correction in order to exhibit alternation with the zigzag of minor wave 2. The most common type of flat is an expanded flat which must include a new high above 1,844.85, and so this is reasonably likely.

I am still expecting more choppy overlapping movement for minor wave 4 for another four to seven days.

Minor wave 4 is likely to end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree (minute wave iv price territory is between 1,829.09 and 1,824.57).

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,811.22.

S&P 500 5 minute 2013

Bullish Alternate Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily alternate bullish 2013

It is possible that a new cycle degree bull market began at 666.79. So far it is not yet halfway through, and I would expect it to last for a few years (at least five more years and probably longer).

The current upwards impulse, labeled intermediate wave (5) for the main wave count and minor wave 5 for this alternate is incomplete. The structure within the final fifth wave is the same, and the structure on the hourly chart is the same. Targets would be the same for this bullish wave count. This wave count again does not diverge with the main wave count, and it will not for several weeks or a a couple of months or so yet.

The maroon – – – channel is an acceleration channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2 on the monthly chart (it is drawn in exactly the same way on the main wave count, but there it is termed a corrective channel). I would not expect intermediate wave (2) to breach this channel because a lower degree (intermediate) wave should not breach an acceleration channel of a higher degree (primary) first and second wave.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th December, 2013

Last analysis expected a little more downwards movement to complete a small fourth wave correction before the upwards trend resumed.

Price did not move lower. The correction completed as a sideways moving triangle, and was followed by more upwards movement.

The wave counts remain the same.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th December, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd December, 2013

The short term target provided in last analysis was 1,827 to 1,828. It was expected to be reached during Monday’s session, and price has reached up just 1.75 points above the target.

The wave counts remain the same.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd December, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th December, 2013

Last analysis expected Friday to at least begin with lower movement towards a short term target at 1,802, and to most likely complete a red candlestick on the daily chart. This is not what happened. Price moved higher.

The bearish alternate is invalidated. The main wave count is correct.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th December, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th December, 2013

Yesterday’s main wave count expected more upwards movement before a second wave correction began. The second wave correction had already started, and price did not move higher.

All three daily wave counts remain valid.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th December, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th December, 2013

The short term target on the hourly chart for Wednesday was at 1,765. Price reached down to 1,767.99, just 2.99 points short of the target, and ended with a slight overshoot of the midline of the parallel channel. Thereafter, price turned strongly upwards exactly as the wave count predicted.

At this stage all the wave counts remain valid.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th December, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th December, 2013

Last analysis expected downwards movement for Tuesday’s session which is exactly what happened. The short term target has been recalculated.

The wave counts remain the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily 2013

This wave count has a higher probability than the bullish alternate. Upwards movement over the last 4 1/2 years subdivides best as a zigzag. If something is “off” about the supposed recovery then it must be a B wave because there is plenty that is off in this scenario in terms of social mood.

We should always assume the trend remains the same, until proven otherwise. This is a huge trend change. I will assume we are yet to see new highs while price remains above 1,646.47.

Minor wave 1 is complete because a trend channel drawn about it is very clearly breached by downwards movement. This may be minor wave 2.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,646.47.

At 1,864 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (1) lasted 18 days. So far intermediate wave (5) has lasted 53 days. If it is continuing it may last a total of a Fibonacci 89 days which would see it end on 10th February, 2014. However, Fibonacci time relationships are not very reliable for the S&P. This is a rough guideline only,

S&P 500 hourly 2013

If downwards movement is a second wave correction then so far it is still incomplete. Minute wave c downwards needs to complete, and is highly likely to at least make a new low below 1,772.28 to avoid a truncation.

Within minute wave c there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii). It is very likely that minuette wave (v) will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii). At 1,765 minuette wave (v) would reach equality with minuette wave (iii). This would see minute wave c end slightly below 1,772.28 and about the mid line of the parallel channel.

I would expect the last wave down to complete the entire correction for minor wave 2 to end tomorrow.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,646.47.

I will publish my 5 minute chart for those of you who may be interested. It shows the subdivisions within minute waves b and c so far.

S&P 500 5 minute 2013

Bearish Alternate Wave Count.

S&P 500 first daily alternate 2013

We should always assume the trend remains the same, until proven otherwise. “The trend is your friend”. This wave count is possible, but we have absolutely no confirmation of a trend change at cycle degree.

By simply moving the degree of labeling within intermediate wave (5) up one degree it is possible to see cycle wave b completed at all wave degrees. On the hourly chart the subdivisions for this wave count would be the same as the hourly chart above, except instead of being labeled a-b-c it would be labeled 1-2-3. When the possible fourth wave arrives it will provide an indication as to whether or not this wave count is correct; if price moves back above 1,772.28 then upwards movement could not be a fourth wave correction as it would be in what would be first wave price territory. The main wave count would require movement above this point.

Within cycle wave b primary wave C is 47.06 longer than equality with primary wave A. Upwards movement may have found final resistance at the upper edge of the maroon channel drawn about the whole of cycle wave b from its start at 666.79.

Cycle wave b is 132.8% the length of cycle wave a, within the common length of 100% to 138% for a flat correction. Because cycle wave b is over 105% the length of cycle wave a this would be an expanded flat which normally expects a C wave to move substantially beyond the end of the A wave. Movement well below 666.79 would be expected for this wave count.

Strong price confirmation of a trend change would come with movement below 1,646.47, and with invalidation of the main wave count above. At that stage both this wave count and the bullish alternate would be correct, and this would be my main wave count.

For this bearish wave count the big maroon channel on the monthly chart needs to be breached. If that occurs then the bullish alternate would be discarded, and this would be my only wave count.

Within cycle wave c no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,811.52.

Bullish Alternate Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily alternate bullish 2013

It is possible that a new cycle degree bull market began at 666.79. So far it is not yet halfway through, and I would expect it to last for a few years (at least five more years and probably longer).

The current upwards impulse, labeled intermediate wave (5) for the main wave count and minor wave 5 for this alternate could now be completed. At this stage both wave counts could see a trend change. The bearish wave count expects a huge cycle degree trend change, and this alternate expects an intermediate degree trend change. If the downwards movement subdivides as a three and remains within the maroon channel then this alternate would be preferred. If it breaches the channel this alternate would be discarded.

The maroon – – – channel is an acceleration channel drawn about primary waves 1 and 2 on the monthly chart (it is drawn in exactly the same way on the main wave count, but there it is termed a corrective channel). I would not expect intermediate wave (2) to breach this channel because a lower degree (intermediate) wave should not breach an acceleration channel of a higher degree (primary) first and second wave.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th December, 2013

Last analysis expected downwards movement to be a second wave correction. This now looks very unlikely because the second wave would have breached the lower edge of an acceleration channel drawn about the first and second wave of one degree higher. What is now more likely is a continuation of intermediate wave (4) as a regular flat correction.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart 2013

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart 2013

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart 2013