Monthly Archives: October 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th October, 2013

Last analysis expected more upwards movement towards a target at 1,780 to 1,781. Price did move higher during Wednesday’s session, but only by 3.27 points. Thereafter, downwards movement has clearly breached the parallel channel on the hourly chart.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th October, 2013

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th October, 2013

Last analysis on 23rd October, 2013 expected more upwards movement to a target at 552. Price moved higher to reach 539.25, $12.75 short of the target.

Minor wave 3 is now over and minor wave 4 is underway.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2013

A large zigzag structure for a fourth wave correction at supercycle degree may be unfolding.

Within the zigzag cycle wave a is a complete impulse. Within cycle wave a there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between primary waves 1, 3 and 5.

Cycle wave b is unfolding as a zigzag. Within the larger zigzag cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 705.07.

At 600 primary wave C would reach 2.618 the length of primary wave A.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

The daily chart shows the structure of cycle wave b.

Within primary wave B there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C).

Within intermediate wave (1) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Within intermediate wave (2) there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

The target for minor wave 3 to end was 552. It ended at 539.25 with no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

At 572 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When minor wave 4 within intermediate wave (3) is completed I will add to this target calculation at minor wave degree, so it may change or widen to a small zone.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Minor wave 3 has completed a typical looking impulse.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave v is 1.35 short of equality with minute wave i, and there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute wave iii and either of i or v.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.55 short of 0.618 the length of minuett e wave (iii).

Minor wave 2 was a shallow 44% zigzag correction of minor wave 1. Given the guideline of alternation I would expect minor wave 4 to be more likely to be deep, and it may unfold as a flat, double, combination or triangle.

Minor wave 4 may also find support at the lower edge of the channel drawn here. This channel is drawn from the highs of minor waves 1 to 3, with a parallel copy placed upon the low of minor wave 2.

If price breaks through support at the lower trend line then I would expect downwards movement to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 3, at about 500.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th October, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis had a main wave count at the daily and hourly chart level which expected more upwards movement. This is what has happened. We have not seen a trend change on 28th October, although we did reach the target at that date.

We must always assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise.

I will continue now to publish the bullish alternate each day, and I have determined a price point at which it would become the main wave count based upon Elliott wave guidelines.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily 2013

This wave count has a higher probability than the alternate. Upwards movement over the last 4 1/2 years subdivides best as a zigzag. Importantly, it does not show typical features of a third wave having just passed the strongest middle portion (which the alternate says must have recently happened). If something is “off” about the supposed recovery then it must be a B wave because there is plenty that is off in this scenario in terms of social mood.

Price has today just reached the upper edge of the big maroon channel from the monthly chart, if the upper trend line is pushed out to encompass all of primary wave A. It may find resistance in this area.

At 1,858.03 cycle wave b would reach 138% the length of cycle wave a. This wave count sees a super cycle expanded flat unfolding, and the maximum common length for a B wave within a flat is 138% the length of the A wave. Above this point this wave count would reduce in probability and it would be more likely that a longer term bull market is underway.

Intermediate wave (4) lasted 14 days, just one more than a Fibonacci 13.

The next Fibonacci duration for intermediate wave (5) to end would be in a total of 21 days on 7th November. Please note: this is a rough guideline only. Within this wave count there are few Fibonacci time relationships at primary or intermediate degree. Sometimes this happens, but not often enough to be reliable.

October is a common month for big trend changes with the S&P 500. It is also possible that intermediate wave (5) may end within the next two sessions.

Within intermediate wave (5) minor wave 3 is slightly shorter than equality with minor wave 1. This limits minor wave 5 to no longer than equality with minor wave 3, because a third wave may never be the shortest wave. This limit is at 1,803.90.

At 1,781 intermediate wave (5) would reach 0.236 the length of intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (5) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,646.47.

S&P 500 hourly 2013

Minute wave v is very clearly not over; it did not end yesterday.

At 1,780 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3. At 1,781 intermediate wave (5) would reach 0.236 the length of intermediate wave (3).

Within minute wave v I have analysed the structure carefully on the five minute chart. Minuette wave (i) ended at 1,763.95, and minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i) and ended at 1,768.32. Minuette wave (ii) was an expanded flat and minuette wave (iv) was a triangle.

Minuette wave (v) looks like it is extending, and the structure is incomplete. I would expect more upwards movement tomorrow from this five minute chart analysis (below).

Draw a parallel channel about minor wave 5 using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave ii. At this stage this channel is showing perfectly where price is finding support and resistance.

Within minuette wave (v) if subminuette wave ii moves lower it may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,765.79.

S&P 500 5 minute 2013

Alternate Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily alternate 2013

It is possible that we are and have been in a new bull market for a cycle degree fifth wave. Cycle waves should last from one to several years (as a rough guideline).

For this alternate downwards movement would be expected to begin soon for intermediate wave (4). This downwards movement must subdivide as a corrective structure, most likely a flat, combination or a triangle.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count would be invalidated with movement below 1,370.58.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th October, 2013

Last analysis expected one more day of upwards movement to a target at 1,764 to 1,765. Price moved higher to reach 1,764.99.

This is a critical juncture. If the main wave count is correct then we should see a trend change either now or maybe within another eight days.

If price keeps going upwards after this week then my alternate would increase in probability. From today onwards I will publish the bullish alternate alongside the main wave count, which I have had for years now.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th October, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th October, 2013

Thursday’s analysis expected more upwards movement for Friday which is what has happened.

The wave count remains the same.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th October, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th October, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected more upwards movement for Thursday’s session, which is exactly what has happened.

The wave count remains the same.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th October, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd October, 2013

Wednesday’s session saw price move lower and complete as a red candlestick, which is what was expected.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

S&P 500 daily 2013

Intermediate wave (4) lasted 14 days, just one more than a Fibonacci 13.

If intermediate wave (5) exhibits a Fibonacci time relationship it may end in a Fibonacci 13 days (or sessions) on 28th October. Please note: this is a rough guideline only. Within this wave count there are few Fibonacci time relationships at primary or intermediate degree. Sometimes this happens, but not often enough to be reliable.

October is a common month for big trend changes with the S&P 500. This wave count could very well complete the structure for intermediate wave (5) this month, and maybe even this week.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (3) was just 0.76 points longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 was 16.23 points longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 was just 2.14 points short of 0.236 the length of minor wave 3.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii was just 7.66 points longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves iii or i.

At 1,764 primary wave C would reach equality with primary wave A. If price continues through this first target then the next target would be at 1,781 where intermediate wave (5) would reach 0.236 the length of intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (5) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,646.47.

S&P 500 hourly 2013

Minor wave 4 is now very likely to be complete. If minor wave 5 lasts three days then intermediate wave (5) would complete in a Fibonacci 13 days (or sessions).

Within minor wave 4 showing up on the daily chart this impulsive structure for intermediate wave (5) has a very typical look.

Importantly, within intermediate wave (5) minor wave 3 is very slightly shorter than minor wave 1. This limits minor wave 5 to no longer than equality with minor wave 3. If minor wave 5 begins at 1,740.50 this limit is at 1,803.90.

At 1,765 minor wave 5 would reach 0.382 the length of minor waves 1 and 3. Minor wave 5 should show a decrease in momentum from that seen for minor wave 3.

I have redrawn the parallel channel about intermediate wave (5) impulse because the fourth wave overshot the previously drawn channel. Draw this channel first with a trend line from the lows of minor waves 2 to 4, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minor wave 3. I would expect minor wave 5 to most likely end mid way within this channel, or slightly less likely to find resistance at the upper edge.

If minor wave 4 were to continue further as a double (unlikely but possible) then it may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,711.03.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd October, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards and sideways movement for one to three days. This is not what happened as price has moved higher.

The wave count remains the same.

It is time to revise the big picture. I will cover monthly charts for this main wave count and the bullish alternate today.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd October, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st October, 2013

Last analysis expected more upwards movement to a short term target at 1,760 to 1,761. Price did move very slightly higher, but has fallen well short of the target.

The structure is unfolding as expected even if the wave lengths are not. This structure is extremely close to completion.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st October, 2013