Monthly Archives: August 2013

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected upwards movement to a target at 6,476 to 6,486. Price moved higher to 30.71 points above the target before turning lower.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focusses on the structure of intermediate wave (4) within primary wave C of cycle wave b.

The correction for intermediate wave (4) is very unlikely to be over. I have tried to see if the downwards movement labeled minor wave A can subdivide as a three or a double three. It fits as neither. It does fit nicely as a five wave impulse, and this is likely only minor wave A of intermediate wave (4).

I would expect minor wave C to end just a little below 6,023 to avoid a truncation.

Minor wave C looks like it may be unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal because on the hourly chart the downwards movement for minute wave i subdivides perfectly as a three wave zigzag and cannot be seen as a five wave impulse.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 5,989.07.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart 2013

With minute wave i subdividing only as a zigzag minor wave C must be an ending diagonal.

All the subwaves within an ending diagonal must subdivide as zigzags. Minute wave iii must subdivide as a zigzag.

So far within minute wave iii minuette wave (a) is a completed. Minuette wave (b) may be a completed zigzag as labeled, or it may move further sideways and a little higher as a flat, triangle or double. Because the downwards movement labeled subminuette wave i subdivides easily as a five wave impulse the probability that minuette wave (b) is over is high.

Ratios within minuette wave (a) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 1.07 points longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

Ratios within subminuette wave v are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 1.54 points longer than 0.382 the length of micro wave 3.

Within minuette wave (b) zigzag there is no adequate Fibonacci ratios between subminuette waves a and c.

Within subminuette wave b expanded flat correction, within minuette wave (b), micro wave C is 2.37 points short of 2.618 the length of micro wave A.

Ratios within subminuette wave i downwards are: micro wave 3 is 1.88 points longer than 0.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 1.09 points longer than 0.382 the length of micro wave 3.

Within subminuette wave ii there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

At 6,275.47 minuette wave (c) would reach equality with minuette wave (a).

If minuette wave (b) continues then it may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a). Movement above 6,627.96 would invalidate this wave count.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd August, 2013

Last week’s analysis of FTSE expected downwards movement for the week which is what we have seen. The wave count remains the same.

This week I will follow only the main monthly wave count. The alternate does not diverge in expectations for direction at this stage.

Also this week I will begin to analyse FTSE at the hourly chart level for you.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart monthly 2013

At super cycle degree this structure may be an expanded flat: cycle wave a subdivides into a three wave zigzag (with a truncated C wave), and cycle wave b subdivides into a corrective structure and has passed the minimum of 90% the length of wave a.

The most common type of flat is an expanded flat. This requires cycle wave b to reach up to 105% the length of cycle wave a at 7,103.67 or above. The last upwards wave is likely to reach this point.

When primary wave C is a completed five wave structure we may expect a trend change at cycle wave degree.

If cycle wave b reaches 105% the length of cycle wave a at 7,103.67 or above then we may expect cycle wave c to move substantially below cycle wave a at 3,460.71.

If cycle wave b ends before 7,103.67 then we may expect cycle wave c to end just slightly below 3,460.71 as the structure at super cycle wave degree would then be a regular flat correction.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart daily 2013

This daily chart focusses on the structure of intermediate wave (4) within primary wave C of cycle wave b.

The correction for intermediate wave (4) is very unlikely to be over. I have tried to see if the downwards movement labeled minor wave A can subdivide as a three or a double three. It fits as neither. It does fit nicely as a five wave impulse, and this is likely only minor wave A of intermediate wave (4).

I would expect minor wave C to end just a little below 6,023 to avoid a truncation.

Minor wave C looks like it may be unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal because on the hourly chart the downwards movement for minute wave i subdivides perfectly as a three wave zigzag and cannot be seen as a five wave impulse.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 5,989.07.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart hourly 2013

This hourly chart focusses on minor wave C.

Minute wave i subdivides as a zigzag. Within this zigzag minuette wave (c) is 19.05 points short of 2.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

Within minuette wave (c) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between subminuette waves i, iii and v.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii of minuette wave (c) are: micro wave 3 is 9.33 points short of 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of micro waves 1 or 3.

Within minute wave ii zigzag there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Within an ending diagonal all the subwaves must subdivide as zigzags. This is why minute wave iii is labeled as a zigzag, and this is the only structure where you will see a third wave labeled as anything other than an impulse.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (a) is a completed five wave impulse.

Ratios within minuette wave (a) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 9.57 points longer than 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Within minute wave iii zigzag minuette wave (b) is an incomplete expanded flat correction. Subminuette waves a and b both subdivide nicely as three wave zigzags. Submineutte wave b is a 122% correction of subminuette wave a. At 6,476 subminuette wave c would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a. At 6,486 minuette wave (b) would reach the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of mineutte wave (a). This gives us a 10 point target zone for a little more upwards movement.

When mineutte wave (b) is complete then minuette wave (c) should unfold downwards as a five wave structure. Minuette wave (c) is extremely likely to make a new low below the end of minuette wave (a) at 6,398.63 to avoid a truncation. When I know where minuette wave (b) has ended then I can calculate a target for minuette wave (c) downwards for you.

Within the zigzag of minute wave iii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 6,627.96.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected more upwards movement from gold towards a short term target at 1,431. Price did move higher but has fallen well short of the target.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C within a cycle degree wave IV.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted eight weeks and it is incomplete. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag because minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse and minor wave B subdivides as a zigzag. Minor wave C is incomplete.

At 1,441 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. This target should be met in another week or two.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, and it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Upwards movement completed a third wave, minute wave iii, within minor wave C. Minute wave iii is 2.62 short of equality with minute wave i. This limits minute wave v to come to no longer than equality with minute wave iii which was 68.58 in length.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) is 1.80 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

Within minuette wave (v) of minute wave iii are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.40 longer than 0.382 the length of subminuette wave iii.

The movement within minute wave iv may be a regular contracting triangle unfolding. It looks like minuette wave (b) within it is completed, and because this is less than 90% the length of minuette wave (a) it cannot be a flat. Because minuette wave (b) unfolds as a double zigzag a combination is unlikely, because the X wave within a combination may only subdivide into a simple three and may not itself be a combination.

If this analysis is correct for minute wave iv then we should expect more very choppy overlapping sideways movement for another day to three as the triangle completes. Following this we should see a sharp upwards thrust as minute wave v completes, which may not be longer than 68.58.

For the triangle to remain valid minuette wave (c) may not move below the end of minuette wave (a) at 1,352.35 and minuette wave (d) may not move above 1,379.29. Although, if the triangle is a barrier triangle then minuette wave (d) may move very slightly above 1,379.29, as long as the B-D trend line is essentially flat. The upper invalidation point for the triangle is not as firm as the lower invalidation point.

Minute wave iv may also be unfolding as an expanding triangle, but the rarity of this structure means the probability is very low.

Minute wave iv may also be unfolding as a combination and the X wave within it may be incomplete. It may also be a more time consuming flat correction with the B wave within it incomplete. I will consider these other possibilities if they show themselves.

What’s clear is this correction is incomplete.

When minute wave iv is complete then I will recalculate the target for minor wave C to end. I cannot do that for you yet.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,344.26.

When minute wave iv is completed the lower invalidation point no longer applies.