US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th July, 2013

Last week’s analysis published charts only.

Last week I expected the structure for a third wave upwards was incomplete. The short term target on the hourly chart was 105.52. Price has reached up so far to 0.76 short of the target.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart follows on directly from last week’s analysis.

Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete zigzag. Within it minor wave B was a triangle and minor wave C is unfolding as an impulse which is incomplete.

Within the impulse of minor wave C minute waves i and ii are complete. Minute wave ii was a very deep 82% zigzag correction. Given the guideline of alternation I will expect minute wave iv to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

At 105.57 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. About this point I would expect upwards movement to stall for between three and five days. Minute wave iv should move price sideways. Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 99.21.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 110.56.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This hourly chart shows the entire structure within minute wave iii.

Within minute wave iii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii). This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (i) or (iii). At 105.60 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (iii). This gives us a 3 cent target zone for a little more upwards movement.

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: subminuette wave iii is 0.60 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette wave waves i or iii.

When minute wave iii is complete we should expect a short term trend change and some sideways movement for minute wave iv. Minute wave iv should breach the small best fit parallel channel containing minute wave iii, and this will be confirmation it has begun.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 99.21.