Monthly Archives: July 2013

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th July, 2013

Upwards movement over the last week does not fit with the wave count I was using. I have spent some time looking for alternates and I will change the wave count to better fit with the changing situation for AAPL.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart weekly 2013

On the weekly chart there is an increase in momentum from the end of primary wave 1 at November 2012, to primary wave 3. This indicates that primary wave 3 may be over. Upwards movement of the last two weeks or so may be primary wave 4.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 505.75.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart daily 2013

Primary wave 3 may have ended recently with an ending diagonal for intermediate wave (5) which had a truncated fifth wave.

At the daily chart level there is no increase in momentum within primary wave 3 beyond primary wave 1. I will rely upon this being seen at a higher time frame.

Primary wave 3 is just 6.40 longer than equality with primary wave 1.

Ratios within primary wave 3 are: intermediate wave (3) is 2.9 short of 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of intermediate waves (1) or (3).

Primary wave 4 may be unfolding as a double zigzag structure. The first zigzag in the double, intermediate wave (W) is completed. The double is joined by a zigzag in the opposite direction labeled intermediate wave (X). The second zigzag in the double intermediate wave (Y) is incomplete.

Primary wave 4 may end about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of primary wave 3 at 467.46.

Primary wave 2 was a brief sharp shallow 44% single zigzag. Primary wave 4 may show alternation in depth and / or structure. So far it is showing alternation in structure.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 505.75.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart hourly 2013

Within primary wave 4 the second zigzag in the double may be underway.

Within intermediate wave (W) there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

Within intermediate wave (X) minor wave C is 0.52 longer than equality with minor wave A.

At 476 minor wave C within intermediate wave (Y) would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A.

Within minor wave C minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 434.34.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart daily alterante 2013

While price remains below 465.75 it remains possible that primary wave 3 is not over and is extending. Within it intermediate waves (1) and (2) may be complete and intermediate wave (3) may be beginning as a long extension.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 1 may be complete and minor wave 2 may be an almost complete expanded flat correction.

Minor wave 2 is now out of proportion to intermediate waves (1) and (2) giving this wave count an odd look and reducing its probability.

Only if price remains below 465.75 and turns downwards with a strong increase in momentum would I now consider this wave count to be correct. At this stage it now is an outlying possibility only.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th July, 2013

Last analysis expected choppy overlapping movement to 1,192.45 or below in the short to mid term. Overall the wave count expected further upwards movement for a fourth wave correction at intermediate degree.

Price did not move lower, it moved higher. The most likely structure, a flat correction, is not the structure unfolding for this fourth wave.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted almost three weeks and I would expect it is incomplete.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then a target for it to end may be calculated.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the extreme within intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag or a double with the first structure a zigzag, because so far minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse. Within the zigzag minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

At this stage we now have a clear five wave structure upwards within minor wave A indicating intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a zigzag or a double with the first structure a zigzag.

Ratios within minor wave A are: minute wave iii is 5.41 longer than equality with minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

Ratios within minute wave v are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.38 longer than 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Within minor wave B it is possible the structure is complete, but it is also possible that it will move lower. On the five minute chart the small upwards movement following the low labeled minor wave B does not subdivide nicely as a five wave structure, so this may be a correction within a larger downwards movement for minor wave B.

When price turns and moves above 1,338.62 then minor wave B is most likely to be over and minor wave C should be underway.

Use Elliott’s technique to draw a parallel channel about intermediate wave (4). Draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. Expect minor wave C to end about the upper trend line.

If minor wave B moves lower then redraw the channel.

Overall I expect this structure to take a few more days to complete. It may find resistance a the upper edge of the channel drawn on the daily chart.