Last analysis had a short term target on the hourly chart at 392.37 for subminuette wave iii. Price moved lower as expected, falling short of the target by $5.68.
This downwards trend is not over for the short term.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete.
I have removed targets for minor wave 3 and intermediate wave (3). Because we have not seen a strong increase in downwards momentum yet I expect the middle of this third wave has not yet passed. I expect momentum to increase. Targets calculated may have been too high. As these waves get closer to completion I will use multiple wave degrees to calculate targets.
At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.
Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.
I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.
When this next five wave impulse labeled primary wave 3 is complete we shall have to consider that may be the end of cycle wave a as a three wave zigzag if super cycle wave II is unfolding as a big flat correction. I will consider that alternative at the appropriate time if it remains viable.
Within minor wave 3 downwards minute waves i and ii are complete. Minute wave iii is incomplete.
I may reconsider the degree of labeling again in the next few days. Although downwards momentum has increased it has not increased enough for this to be the middle of a third wave at several degrees. I expect there may yet be stronger downwards momentum ahead.
Subminuette wave iv is likely to be over because it has found resistance at the upper edge of a small narrow channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique about minuette wave (iii).
Subminuette wave iii is 3.45 short of 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i. At 390 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i.
At 392 minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). This gives us a $2 target zone with a good probability for the next wave down.
When minuette wave (iii) is completed redraw the channel. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette waves (i) to wherever minuette wave (iii) ends, place a parallel copy upon the high of minuette wave (ii). Such a channel should better contain this downwards movement. Expect the following fourth wave correction for minuette wave (iv) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel.
At this stage if subminuette wave iv moves any higher it may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 433.32.