AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th June, 2013

Last analysis of AAPL expected choppy overlapping upwards movement for a second wave correction. Price has moved sideways since last analysis. The structure of this correction is still incomplete.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete.

At 381 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

At 289.78 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When there is more structure within intermediate wave (3) to analyse I will add a target calculation at minor degree for it to end, so this target will probably change or widen to a zone.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.

When this next five wave impulse labeled primary wave 3 is complete we shall have to consider that may be the end of cycle wave a as a three wave zigzag if super cycle wave II is unfolding as a big flat correction. I will consider that alternative at the appropriate time if it remains viable.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

To start minor wave 3 downwards minute wave i subdivides into a leading expanding diagonal. Following a leading diagonal in a first wave position the second wave is often very deep.

At this stage minute wave ii subdivides as a flat correction; minuette wave (a) subdivides as a three, minuette wave (b) is a three and 103% the length of minuette wave (a), and minuette wave (c) is incomplete. It is possible that minute wave ii is complete as a running flat (the subdivisions fit) but this is extremely unlikely. What is more likely is that minuette wave (c) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a) at 440.70.

It is extremely likely that minuette wave (c) will make a new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 436.29 to avoid a truncation and a rare running flat. A running flat following a leading diagonal does not make sense.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 457.10.

While minuette wave (c) is incomplete subminuette wave ii within it may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 428.50.