AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th June, 2013

Last AAPL analysis expected downwards movement which is what we have seen.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete.

Within intermediate wave (2) running flat minor wave C is just 2.17 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave A.

At 289.78 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When there is more structure within intermediate wave (3) to analyse I will add a target calculation at minor degree for it to end, so this target will probably change.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.

When this next five wave impulse labeled primary wave 3 is complete we shall have to consider that may be the end of cycle wave a as a three wave zigzag if super cycle wave II is unfolding as a big flat correction. I will consider that alternative at the appropriate time if it remains viable.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Price has remained below the last analysis invalidation point and the parallel channel. However, we do not have a clear five wave structure downwards on the hourly chart which is required to have confidence in a trend change.

Within minute wave 3 I have moved the degree of labeling for the first wave down one degree. This was probably not minute wave i; it is more likely only minuette wave (i) within minute wave i.

So far momentum within minuette wave (iii) has increased beyond that seen for minuette wave (i) downwards so this wave count fits with MACD.

Within minuette wave (iii) there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i. I would expect to see a Fibonacci ratio between subminuette wave v and either iii or i. At 428.48 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i.

At 430.77 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

This gives a 2.29 wide target zone for more downwards movement which may be reached in about another one to three days.

While minuette wave (iii) is incomplete subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 443.71.

When minuette wave (iii) is complete the invalidation point should be moved down to the end of minuette wave (i) at 442.48.

Movement below 418.90 would provide confidence in this trend change as minor wave 3 must make a new low below the end of minor wave 1 and at this price point that core Elliott wave rule would be met.

At 381 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This target may be about two or so weeks away.