US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th June, 2013

Last week’s main wave count expected downwards movement to complete a triangle, but not for price to move below 92.21.

We did see price move lower, but the triangle was invalidated. This has necessitated a reanalysis of the wave count.

I have just the one wave count for you this week; the previous alternate did not fit.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 1 is complete and minor wave 2 may be an incomplete double zigzag. Within the double zigzag structure of minor wave 2 the first zigzag labeled minute wave w is complete, as is the three joining the two structures labeled minute wave x. Within minute wave y zigzag minuette wave (a) subdivides into a five wave impulse. Minuette wave (b) is a completed zigzag, and minuette wave (c) upwards is incomplete.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.43.

The previous alternate wave count saw minor wave 2 as over and minor wave 3 downwards as beginning with a leading diagonal in a first wave position. It had to see the piece of upwards movement labeled on the chart above as subminuette wave b within minuette wave (b) of minute wave y as a five wave structure. I have looked carefully at this piece of movement and I conclude it simply cannot be a five and it must be a three. For this reason I have discarded my alternate and have only this one wave count for you this week.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Instead of a triangle unfolding in a B wave position, the overlapping series of zigzags was an ending diagonal which trended lower.

Overall the wave count remains mostly the same.

Within minor wave 2 price is within the second of two zigzags, labeled minute wave y.

Within minute wave y zigzag minuette waves (a) and (b) are complete. Minuette wave (c) upwards is so far unfolding as an impulse.

Within minuette wave (c) subminuette waves i and ii are complete. Subminuette wave iii is unfolding upwards and so far is incomplete.

Within subminuette wave iii micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated at subminuette wave degree on the hourly chart with movement below 92.38, prior to the completion of minuette wave (c).

When minuette wave (c) upwards is a completed five wave structure then the short term invalidation point is removed and we should expect a trend change with downwards movement.

At 98.36 minuette wave (c) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a) within the zigzag of minute wave y. This would bring minor wave 2 right up to the start of minor wave 1. Sometimes, this is what second waves do. When they do this they test our nerves to the extreme!

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 98.37.

If this wave count is invalidated with upwards movement it could be a continuation of intermediate wave (2) and the invalidation point would move up to the start of intermediate wave (1) at 110.56.