Monthly Archives: June 2013

DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th June, 2013

Last week expected upwards movement for the Dow. We did see some upwards movement, but only after the main daily wave count was invalidated.

I have two new wave counts for you this week. While price remains below 15,340.09 and above 14,551.27 both wave counts will remain valid. Price needs to break out of this range to give us clarity.

Continue reading DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th June, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th June, 2013

Last analysis expected at least some upwards movement before price turned lower, for both wave counts. This is not what happened as price moved slowly lower during Friday’s session.

Both wave counts remain the same at the daily chart level. The main wave count has only a slightly higher probability than the alternate and we have no confirmation of a trend change.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th June, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th June, 2013

Last analysis expected downwards movement from the main wave count, and upwards movement from the alternate. Although price has moved higher it remains below the confidence point on the alternate wave count. The main wave count still has a slightly higher probability because it still has a better overall look.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th June, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th June, 2013

Last analysis expected more downwards movement. This is what happened, but price moved lower faster than expected: the target zone I had thought was about six weeks away at 1,232 to 1,216 was met in just one week.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2), and possibly also (3), are complete.

Intermediate wave (3) is 10.48 longer than 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 is 21.24 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 6.08 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) may last three or more weeks and is most likely to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 1,425.37, which is just above the fourth wave of one lesser degree. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then this target will change.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Ratios within minor wave 5 are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is 1.91 longer than 0.146 the length of minute wave iii.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 3.50 short of 0.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Within minuette wave (iii) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between subminuette waves i, iii and v.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 1.9 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.43 longer than 0.618 the length of micro wave 3.

Ratios within minuette wave (v) of minute wave iii are: subminuette wave iii is 1.96 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 2.63 short of equality with subminuette wave iii.

I have drawn a channel about minor wave 5. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy to contain all of the movement within minuette wave (v). When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then we shall have some confirmation that minor wave 5 is over, and so intermediate wave (3) should be also over.

There are thirteen possible corrective structures for intermediate wave (4). At this very early stage it is impossible to say which structure will unfold. We can be sure it will contain a lot of choppy, overlapping and difficult to analyse movement. It may contain a new price extreme beyond the start of intermediate wave (4), below 1,221.88, so there is no lower invalidation point.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th June, 2013

Upwards movement for Wednesday’s session invalidated the labeling on the main hourly wave count. I have adjusted this wave count today.

We still have the same two wave counts with the main wave count having only a slightly higher probability than the alternate.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th June, 2013

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th June, 2013

Last analysis of US Oil was two weeks ago. It expected upwards movement to complete a second wave correction with a target at 98.36 and an invalidation point very close to that at 100.43.

Price moved higher as expected to reach 99.21, just 0.85 above the target, before turning strongly downwards.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and now also 2 are both probably complete. The next movement downwards should be a strong third wave.

I have drawn a parallel channel about the second zigzag in the double of minor wave 2. When this channel is clearly breached with at least one full daily candlestick below it and not touching the lower trend line then we shall have trend channel confirmation of a trend change. At this stage we have an overshoot only, not a clear channel breach.

However, there is no room left for upwards movement for minor wave 2. Also, it is a double zigzag structure which is reasonably common and for it to continue further would see it unfold as a very rare triple. The probability that this correction is finally over is extremely high.

We should expect Oil to continue to fall with an increase of downwards momentum. In the next few weeks to months we may see some explosive downwards movement.

Minor wave 3 must move below the end of minor wave 1 at 84.07. At 72.74 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This target is weeks away.

When minute waves i through to iv within minor wave 3 are complete then the target calculation may be done at a second wave degree. The target of 84.07 may widen into a zone or it may change as there is more structure to analyse.

Within minor wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 99.21.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

So far within minute wave iii we may have the end of minuette wave (i) within minor wave i.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves i and iii, and subminuette wave v is 0.07 short of 0.236 the length of subminuette wave i.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 0.14 short of 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.01 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

Ratios within micro wave 3 are: submicro wave (3) is 0.03 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of micro waves 1 or 3.

Within micro wave 4 submicro wave (C) is 0.01 longer than 2.618 the length of submicro wave (A).

Ratios within subminuette wave a of minuette wave (ii) are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.13 short of 1.618 the length of micro wave 1.

At 96.82 subminuette wave c would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave a, and minuette wave (ii) would end just above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i). If subminuette wave b moves lower the target at 96.82 must also move correspondingly lower.

While minuette wave (ii) is incomplete any further downwards movement of subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a at 92.71.

When we have upwards movement for subminuette wave c then this short term invalidation point will no longer apply.

We may expect subminuette wave c to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel drawn about minuette wave (ii).

This second wave correction should be over within 24 to 48 hours. I expect a trend change during the next week. The next movement downwards should see an increase in downwards momentum.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th June, 2013

The main wave count from last analysis expected downwards movement, but allowed for the possibility that a small second wave correction could move higher. Price moved higher during the Tuesday’s session and has remained below the invalidation point on the hourly chart.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th June, 2013

BHP Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

At the request of a member here is a wave count for BHP.

I have started the wave count at the all time high at $50 on May, 2008. Prior to this point it looks like a long cycle or super cycle degree impulse completed upwards. My wave count will focus on the following correction which is at super cycle or cycle degree because the purpose is to see if the trend is over or will continue downwards.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

BHP monthly 2013

The corrective structure is a regular flat. Cycle wave a subdivides into a three wave zigzag. Cycle wave b is also a three and is 99% of cycle wave a. Cycle wave c is incomplete and may end about the lower edge of the trend channel, about the same level as cycle wave a. If cycle wave c reaches equality with cycle wave a it will end at 19.81.

However, the structure within cycle wave c so far indicates it may extend. If the next wave down shows an increase in momentum it may be a third wave within cycle wave c and so cycle wave c may reach 1.618 the length of cycle wave a at 1.27.

Within cycle wave a primary wave C is just 0.87 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Within cycle wave b primary wave C is 1.18 short of 0.618 the length of primary wave A.

Within primary wave A of cycle wave b there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between intermediate waves (1), (3) and (5).

Within primary wave C of cycle wave b there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between intermediate waves (1), (3) and (5).

BHP weekly 2013

This weekly chart looks at the structure within cycle waves a and b.

Within primary wave A of cycle wave a there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between intermediate waves (1), (3), and (5).

Within primary wave C of cycle wave a there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between intermediate waves (1), (3), and (5).

Within intermediate wave (3) of primary wave A of cycle wave b ratios are: minor wave 3 is 0.20 longer than equality with minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is 0.17 longer than equality with minor wave 3.

Within primary wave B intermediate wave (C) is 0.33 longer than 0.382 the length of intermediate wave (A).

BHP weekly 2013

Ratios within primary wave 1 within cycle wave c are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (3) and (1), and intermediate wave (5) is 0.29 longer than 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (3).

Primary wave 2 is an expanded flat correction. Within it intermediate wave (B) is a 165% correction of intermediate wave (A). Intermediate wave (C) is just 0.30 longer than 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (A).

Within intermediate wave (A) of primary wave 2 minor wave C is 0.24 longer than equality with minor wave A.

Within intermediate wave (B) of primary wave 2 minor wave C is 0.51 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave A.

Within minor wave B of intermediate wave (B) of primary wave 2 there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.

Ratios within minor wave C of intermediate wave (B) of primary wave 2 are: minute wave iii has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is 0.23 short of equality with minute wave i.

Ratios within intermediate wave (C) of primary wave 2 are: minor wave 3 is 0.36 longer than equality with minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is exactly 0.618 the length of minor wave 3.

Intermediate wave (2) within primary wave 3 subdivides as an expanded flat correction. Within it minor wave B is a 143% correction of minor wave A. There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

At 27.77 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

At 23.02 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

I have drawn an acceleration channel about downwards movement. If BHP is currently within a third wave down I would expect this channel to be breached to the downside.

Downwards momentum should increase over the next few weeks.

In conclusion, Elliott Wave structures look reasonably typical for BHP. There is a lack of Fibonacci ratios between actionary waves within impulses. Fibonacci ratios between A and C waves of corrections seem to be common for this stock. The long term targets for cycle wave c may be more reliable than mid term targets for intermediate wave (3) for this reason.

Alternate Monthly Wave Count.

BHP monthly 2013

This corrective structure may be a double zigzag. However, the purpose of double zigzags is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price far enough against the main trend, and so X waves within double zigzags do not tend to be this deep. The whole structure should move clearly against the prior impulsive trend, but this movement is sideways.

The expectation for more downwards movement would be the same. This alternate sees a first target for cycle wave y at a point just above primary wave W which does not achieve the purpose of this structure. At 19.81 primary wave C would reach equality with primary wave a. The second target has a higher probability for this wave count. At 1.27 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

 

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th June, 2013

Last analysis had a short term target on the hourly chart at 392.37 for subminuette wave iii. Price moved lower as expected, falling short of the target by $5.68.

This downwards trend is not over for the short term.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete.

I have removed targets for minor wave 3 and intermediate wave (3). Because we have not seen a strong increase in downwards momentum yet I expect the middle of this third wave has not yet passed. I expect momentum to increase. Targets calculated may have been too high. As these waves get closer to completion I will use multiple wave degrees to calculate targets.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.

When this next five wave impulse labeled primary wave 3 is complete we shall have to consider that may be the end of cycle wave a as a three wave zigzag if super cycle wave II is unfolding as a big flat correction. I will consider that alternative at the appropriate time if it remains viable.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Within minor wave 3 downwards minute waves i and ii are complete. Minute wave iii is incomplete.

I may reconsider the degree of labeling again in the next few days. Although downwards momentum has increased it has not increased enough for this to be the middle of a third wave at several degrees. I expect there may yet be stronger downwards momentum ahead.

Subminuette wave iv is likely to be over because it has found resistance at the upper edge of a small narrow channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique about minuette wave (iii).

Subminuette wave iii is 3.45 short of 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i. At 390 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i.

At 392 minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). This gives us a $2 target zone with a good probability for the next wave down.

When minuette wave (iii) is completed redraw the channel. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette waves (i) to wherever minuette wave (iii) ends, place a parallel copy upon the high of minuette wave (ii). Such a channel should better contain this downwards movement. Expect the following fourth wave correction for minuette wave (iv) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel.

At this stage if subminuette wave iv moves any higher it may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 433.32.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th June, 2013

Further downwards movement has invalidated the labeling of the main wave count and confirmed the alternate daily wave count. This downwards movement clearly breaches any best fit channel containing intermediate wave (C) upwards and as a result the wave counts are now swapped over. I will review the bigger picture today with the monthly chart.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th June, 2013