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Last analysis expected more upwards movement, which is what we have seen for Monday’s session. The short term target is still days away.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

S&P 500 daily 2013

Within intermediate wave (C) minor wave 1 was extended. Minor wave 3 is showing an increase in momentum beyond that seen within minor wave 1.

So far within minor wave 3 minute waves i and iii may be complete. Minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i.

Minute wave iv was over at the end of Thursday’s session and minute wave v began on Friday.

This wave count requires an end to minor waves 3, 4 and 5. Minor wave 3 is unlikely to be extended also and would most likely be 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. This is achieved at 1,693. At 1,700 minute wave v within minor wave 3 would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.

Minor wave 5 would most likely be equal in length to minor wave 3, or it may be 0.618 the length of minor wave 3. If minor wave 3 is shorter than minor wave 1 then minor wave 5 would be limited to no longer than equality with minor wave 3 because a third wave may never be the shortest.

At 1,740 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality with the orthodox length of intermediate wave (A). When minor waves 3 and 4 within intermediate wave (C) are complete I will use calculations at minor degree to add to this target so it may change or widen to a zone.

Within minor wave 3 if we move the degree of labeling all down one degree and are yet to see a minute wave ii correction then minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,543.69.

The very wide maroon trend channel shown here is copied over from the monthly chart. We may find this movement ends as it finds resistance at the upper trend line.

S&P 500 hourly 2013

I have moved the degree of labeling within minute wave v down one degree. We have probably only seen the end of minuette wave (i) during Monday’s session.

On the five minute and one minute charts minuette wave (i) subdivides nicely into a five wave impulse, and this looks correct on the hourly chart too. For this reason I will discard the alternate from last analysis as that required a three wave structure upwards.

If we moved the degree of labeling within minute wave v up one degree it would be possible to see minor wave 3 as complete. However, there would be no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v within minor wave 3, which is unusual. This reduces the probability of this possible alternate, and for this reason I’m not seriously considering it. I expect minute wave v is incomplete.

At 1,700 minute wave v would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave iii. At 1,693 minor wave 3 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Within minute wave v minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,648.60.

From the five minute chart if we see movement below 1,663.52 then we would know that minute wave (ii) is incomplete and is continuing as a double zigzag. Unfortunately, there is no upper price point which would confirm minuette wave (ii) is over as it may continue further sideways as a flat which may include a new high for wave B within it.