Monthly Archives: May 2013

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th May, 2013

Last analysis expected downwards movement which is not what happened. Price has moved higher, but has remained below the invalidation point on the daily chart so the wave count remains valid.

This long deep upwards movement looks to be of a higher degree than initially thought. I have adjusted the degree of labeling within recent movement up one degree.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (2) failed to move above the high of minor wave A at 469.95 and has completed as a rare running flat.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave C is just 2.17 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave A.

At 289.78 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When there is more structure within intermediate wave (3) to analyse I will add a target calculation at minor degree for it to end, so this target will probably change.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.

When this next five wave impulse labeled primary wave 3 is complete we shall have to consider that may be the end of cycle wave a as a three wave zigzag if super cycle wave II is unfolding as a big flat correction. I will consider that alternative at the appropriate time if it remains a viable alternate.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Upwards movement looks so far like a second wave correction. Second waves are often very deep and so this has a typical look.

Within minute wave ii minuette wave (a) is a leading diagonal and minuette wave (b) may possibly be a triangle.

At 460.50 minuette wave (c) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a). At 461.49 subminuette wave v within minuette wave (c) would reach equality in length length with subminuette wave iii. This gives us a 0.99 target zone for a little more upwards movement to complete this correction.

When minute wave ii is complete we should expect downwards movement with an increase in momentum as a third wave unfolds.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th May, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards movement for Thursday’s session which is not what happened. Price has moved higher but remains well within the same small range it has been trading in over the last week, and the wave count still has a very typical look.

The wave count remains the same with just the one daily and one hourly chart.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th May, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th May, 2013

Last week’s gold analysis expected downwards movement towards a target at 1,329. Price has not moved lower, but nor has it moved above the invalidation point at 1,419.78. Price has moved sideways for the week.

Sideways movement looks like a contracting triangle. This is either a fourth wave correction or an X wave within a larger fourth wave correction. I have two wave counts for you this week looking at these two possibilities.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed its middle.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i, ii, iii and iv are complete. Minute wave v may be incomplete.

At 1,276 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the orthodox length of minute wave i. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii I expect we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i.

Draw a channel about minor wave 3 using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minute waves ii and iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave iii. Expect minute wave v to end midway within this channel most likely, or to find support at the lower edge if it gets down there. When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then minor wave 3 should be over and minor wave 4 should be underway.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 1,441.48.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The triangle may be minuette wave (iv) within minute wave v.

All the triangle subwaves subdivide into zigzags or zigzag multiples so far. The final wave of subminuette wave e should be over. Any further upwards movement for subminuette wave e may not move beyond the end of subminuette wave c for a contracting triangle. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,402.23.

If this wave count is invalidated with upwards movement we may use the alternate below.

Alternate Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

At the daily chart level this alternate is the same as the main wave count up to the point labeled minute wave iv within minor wave 3. Thereafter, this alternate sees the last wave downwards as a five wave impulse for a truncated fifth wave for minute wave v to end minor wave 3.

Because this wave count sees a truncation it has a slightly lower probability than the main wave count.

Within recent sideways movement the triangle may have begun at the high labeled minute wave w within minor wave 4. Minor wave 4 may be unfolding as a double zigzag or double combination, with the first structure minute wave w a complete zigzag, the three joining the two structures labeled minute wave x unfolding as a triangle. Minute wave y is most likely to be a zigzag, but it may also be a flat correction.

If price moves above 1,402.23 then the triangle is completed and the next movement is upwards. If the next wave upwards travels the same distance as the widest part of the triangle it would end at 1,449.09.

Minute wave y is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag lasting a few days.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2013

Within the recent sideways movement the subdivisions are seen here the same as the main wave count, except the degree of labeling is higher.

At the hourly chart level this alternate does not have as good a look as the main wave count.

Within a contracting triangle minuette wave (e) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (c). This triangle is invalidated with movement below 1,379.57.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th May, 2013

Last analysis expected more choppy overlapping movement. The hourly wave count expected price to move lower during Wednesday’s session as a corrective structure unfolded downwards. This is exactly what has happened.

There is enough of this structure completed now to be able to calculate a target for it to end, and to draw channels about recent movement to use as indicators of when it is over.

The wave count remains the same with just the one daily and one hourly wave count.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th May, 2013

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th May, 2013

Last analysis had two wave counts. They both remain valid.

Price has remained below the invalidation point at 100.43.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 1 is complete and minor wave 2 may be an incomplete double zigzag. Within the double zigzag structure of minor wave 2 the first zigzag labeled minute wave w is complete, as is the three joining the two structures labeled minute wave x. Within minute wave y zigzag minuette wave (a) subdivides into a five wave impulse. Minuette wave (b) may be completing a triangle.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.43.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minuette wave (b) this structure may be a triangle yet to complete.

Each subwave so far subdivides into a zigzag. Only the final wave downwards, subminuette wave e, needs to complete.

The triangle is a running contracting triangle. Within a contracting triangle subminuette wave e may not move beyond the end of subminuette wave c. The triangle is invalidated with movement below 92.21.

Further downwards movement would be expected for subminuette wave e to end about 92.77.

Thereafter price should turn upwards to make a new high above 97.14 for minuette wave (c) to move beyond the end of minuette wave (a) to avoid a truncation.

Minuette wave (c) may be about 7.11 in length if it is 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.43.

Movement below 92.21 prior to the completion of minor wave 2 would indicate the alternate wave count below may be correct.

Alternate Wave Count.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 may both be complete.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i may be unfolding as a leading diagonal. Within the leading diagonal minuette waves (ii) and (iv) must subdivide into zigzags, and minuette waves (i), (iii), and (v) are usually zigzags but may also subdivide as impulses. Second and fourth waves of diagonals are usually deep corrections, between 66% to 81%. Minuette wave (ii) is deeper at 94% and minuette wave (iv) is now 97%.

If price does not move above 97.73 this alternate would remain valid.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th May, 2013

Last analysis expected more choppy, overlapping movement. This is what has happened for the start of the new week.

Last analysis had a short term target for a little upwards movement to start the new week to 1,657. Upwards movement exceeded this target by 17.21 points before turning downwards.

The wave count remains the same.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th May, 2013

Entry Timing Technique Using Bollinger Bands® and Elliott Wave Oscillator

Set up the following indicators on a 15 minute chart:

– Bollinger bands; 1 sd and 2 sd.

– Elliott wave oscillator, or MACD (to use the histogram only).

The sequence of steps is:

1. Get the expected direction from your Elliott wave count. On the hourly chart draw a channel about the most recent movement which should be nearing an end.

2. Wait for a channel breach. Depending upon risk appetite, either on the hourly chart (less risky) or the 15 minute chart (more risky).

3. Wait for price to enter the two Bollinger bands on the OPPOSITE side to the expected trend direction. If you expect price to go up wait for price to enter the lower two bands. If you expect price to go down wait for it to enter the upper two bands.

4. Finally, wait for a bar on the histogram which is smaller than the one before it.

5. Enter your trade.

6. Take profit either using a target calculated from your Elliot wave count, or after a channel breach of the new movement.

Example for an upwards trend:

upwardstrend

Example for a downwards trend:

downwardstrend

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th May, 2013

Last analysis expected more choppy overlapping movement for Friday’s session which is mostly what happened.

This correction is most likely incomplete. The wave count remains the same.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th May, 2013

DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th May, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected further upwards movement from the Dow which is what happened. Price has found resistance at the upper edge of a long held parallel channel on the monthly chart.

The wave count is slightly changed at minor wave degree. The target is mostly the same.

Continue reading DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th May, 2013