AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th April, 2013

Last analysis expected upwards movement to a target about 405 in the first instance. If price continued higher through this first target the next expectation was about 417.79. The correction may have ended 2.54 short of the higher, less likely target.

I can now calculate a downwards target for the next wave down for you with greater accuracy.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart daily 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 may be extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun.

At 294 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) I have today moved my degree of labeling down one degree. Considering the target at 294 and using MACD as an indicator of momentum, it looks unlikely that minor waves 1 to 4 are now complete. Intermediate wave (3) should see an increase in downwards momentum beyond that seen for intermediate wave (1). The strongest part of intermediate wave (3) should be its middle, minor wave 3. Downwards momentum indicates that this has not yet passed.

I have three hourly wave counts for you today, presented in order of probability.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart hourly 2013

Within minor wave 1 minute waves i through to iv may now be complete. This wave count sees minute waves ii and iv nicely in proportion to each other. This is my main reason for judging this wave count as most likely. It has the best look overall.

There is perfect alternation between minute waves ii and iv. Minute wave ii is a shallow 26% flat correction, and minute wave iv is a deep 57% zigzag correction. They are nicely in proportion to each other. For these reasons this is my main wave count.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii. This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i. The most common ratio is equality with minute wave i. This would be achieved at 375.5.

Within minute wave v minuette waves (i) and (ii) may be complete. At 385 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Movement below the channel containing minuette wave (ii) would indicate that minuette wave (ii) is over and minuette wave (iii) is underway.

Movement below 397.54 would invalidate the first alternate wave count in the short term and provide some confidence in the short term target.

Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 415.25. If this wave count is invalidated we may use the first alternate below.

First Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart hourly alternate 2013

It is possible that minute wave iv is not over and may be continuing further as a double zigzag. This wave count has a slightly better fit with subdivisions of most recent movement within minuette waves (x) and (y). Minuette wave (x) subdivides best as a three on the one minute chart, and subminuette wave a subdivides very well as a five on the hourly chart. For these reasons I would consider this alternate to be a good wave count.

If minute wave iv continues further as a double zigzag it may be likely to reach up to about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave iii, to just above 417.79.

Within minuette wave (y) subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 397.54 (before subminuette wave c is completed).
Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 426.40. If this wave count is invalidated then we may use the second alternate below.

Second Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart hourly second alternate 2013

This wave count is identical to the first two hourly wave counts up to the high of minute wave ii. Thereafter, I have simply moved the degree of labeling down one degree.

It is possible the minute wave iii is not over and is extending further.

Movement above 426.40 would invalidate both the first two hourly wave counts and confirm this alternate. If price does not move above 426.40 then this alternate would still remain valid.

It would be likely that minuette wave (ii) may not be over and may continue higher as a double zigzag structure. I would expect it to end just a little above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i) at 417.79.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 437.99.