AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd April, 2013

Last analysis expected more downwards movement to a target at 368 before a fourth wave correction. Price did move lower but only to 385.10, falling 17.10 short of the target.

I have the same daily wave count for you and one hourly wave count.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart daily 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 may be extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun.

At 294 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 may be complete. Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 426.40.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart hourly 2013

Minor wave 3 may have completed. This wave count is supported by MACD; the strongest momentum is within the third wave.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 1 and 3. This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minor wave 5 and either of 3 or 1. When minor wave 4 is complete I can calculate a target for minor wave 5 to end which would have a good probability.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii is just 0.33 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

Minor wave 2 was a shallow 26% flat correction. Given the guideline of alternation we may expect minor wave 4 to most likely be a deep zigzag ending about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 3 at 417.79.

However, alternation is a guideline and not a rule. The parallel channel drawn here about this downwards impulse suggests minor wave 4 may find resistance before it reaches 417.79. We may not see alternation in depth of correction, but we may see alternation in structure.

Minor wave 4 is likely to end about the fourth wave of one lesser degree at 405.79, which is close to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 3 at 405.30. Also at 405 minute wave c within minor wave 4 would reach equality in length with minute wave a.

If price continues upwards past this target then the next expectation for it to end would be at the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 417.79.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 426.40.