US Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th April, 2013

Last week’s oil analysis expected price to move lower. The short term target at 94.52 has been exceeded by 2.53.

This week I expect the completion of a minuette degree second wave correction, followed by a third wave down.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete.

Minor wave 3 must make a new low below the end of minor wave 1 at 84.07.

At 71.33 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

The parallel channel around the correction of minute wave ii is clearly breached by downwards movement providing trend channel confirmation that minute wave ii is over and minute wave iii is underway.

Within minute wave ii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 97.73.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Within minuette wave (i) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between subminuette waves i, iii and v.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.03 short of equality with micro wave 3.

At 95.29 subminuette wave c would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a. At 95.07 micro wave 5 within subminuette wave c would reach equality with micro wave 1.

The channel drawn about minuette wave (i) using Elliott’s technique is clearly breached by upwards movement. Minuette wave (i) is complete and minuette wave (ii) is underway.

We can now also draw a channel about minuette wave (ii). Draw the first trend line from the start of subminuette wave a to the end of subminuette wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of subminuette wave a. So far price is contained within this channel. Subminuette wave c may overshoot this channel. When this channel is breached by subsequent downwards movement we shall have trend channel confirmation that minuette wave (ii) is complete and minuette wave (iii) is underway.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 97.73.

It is possible that subminuette wave b may not be over and may continue yet further sideways. While minuette wave (ii) is underway subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 91.99.