Monthly Archives: April 2013

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th April, 2013

My last AAPL analysis had three hourly wave counts. Price movement above 415.25 invalidated the first hourly wave count indicating further upwards movement for the second hourly wave count should be expected. Further movement above 426.40 invalidated the second hourly wave count leaving only the third and final hourly wave count as correct.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 may be extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun.

At 294 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Intermediate wave (3) should see an increase in downwards momentum beyond that seen for intermediate wave (1). The strongest part of intermediate wave (3) should be its middle, minor wave 3. Downwards momentum indicates that this has not yet passed.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 437.99.

Price may find resistance about the upper edge of the trend channel here. This may be where a strong third wave down is initiated.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

With the first two of my three hourly wave counts now invalidated this is my only wave count for you today.

I have looked carefully at the structure of minuette wave (ii) on the five minute chart. Within it subminuette wave b looks like a triangle, particularly on lower time frames.

Subminuette wave a subdivides perfectly into a five wave impulse. Subminuette wave c is also a complete impulse.

The channel drawn here is first drawn with a trend line from the start of subminuette wave a to the end of the triangle for subminuette wave b, then that trend line is pushed lower to contain the end of micro wave C of the triangle. A parallel copy is placed upon the high of micro wave B within the triangle. This upper trend line shows perfectly where minuette wave (ii) may have ended.

When this channel is breached by downwards movement we shall have an early indication that minuette wave (ii) may be over and a third wave down may have begun.

At 348 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

If minuette wave (ii) moves any higher then it may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 437.99. If this wave count is invalidated with upwards movement I would have to reanalyse it at intermediate degree. An invalidation would be significant at this point.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th April, 2013

Last analysis expected most likely to see upwards movement for Monday’s session for the S&P 500 towards a short term target at 1,599. Price has moved higher but the target is not yet reached. Analysis of the subdivisions on the hourly and five minute charts will indicate if this structure is complete and fall short of the target, or if it should continue yet further higher.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th April, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th April, 2013

I had expected Friday to continue with upwards movement to a short term target at 1,595. This is not what happened. Downwards movement invalidated the hourly wave count at minute wave degree.

The wave count at the daily chart level remains valid and is unchanged.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th April, 2013

DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th April, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected upwards movement for the week which is exactly what happened. I expect the same next week although Monday and Tuesday may first take price lower for a second wave correction.

Continue reading DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th April, 2013

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th April, 2013

Last analysis expected upwards movement to a target about 405 in the first instance. If price continued higher through this first target the next expectation was about 417.79. The correction may have ended 2.54 short of the higher, less likely target.

I can now calculate a downwards target for the next wave down for you with greater accuracy.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart daily 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 may be extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun.

At 294 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) I have today moved my degree of labeling down one degree. Considering the target at 294 and using MACD as an indicator of momentum, it looks unlikely that minor waves 1 to 4 are now complete. Intermediate wave (3) should see an increase in downwards momentum beyond that seen for intermediate wave (1). The strongest part of intermediate wave (3) should be its middle, minor wave 3. Downwards momentum indicates that this has not yet passed.

I have three hourly wave counts for you today, presented in order of probability.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart hourly 2013

Within minor wave 1 minute waves i through to iv may now be complete. This wave count sees minute waves ii and iv nicely in proportion to each other. This is my main reason for judging this wave count as most likely. It has the best look overall.

There is perfect alternation between minute waves ii and iv. Minute wave ii is a shallow 26% flat correction, and minute wave iv is a deep 57% zigzag correction. They are nicely in proportion to each other. For these reasons this is my main wave count.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii. This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i. The most common ratio is equality with minute wave i. This would be achieved at 375.5.

Within minute wave v minuette waves (i) and (ii) may be complete. At 385 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Movement below the channel containing minuette wave (ii) would indicate that minuette wave (ii) is over and minuette wave (iii) is underway.

Movement below 397.54 would invalidate the first alternate wave count in the short term and provide some confidence in the short term target.

Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 415.25. If this wave count is invalidated we may use the first alternate below.

First Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart hourly alternate 2013

It is possible that minute wave iv is not over and may be continuing further as a double zigzag. This wave count has a slightly better fit with subdivisions of most recent movement within minuette waves (x) and (y). Minuette wave (x) subdivides best as a three on the one minute chart, and subminuette wave a subdivides very well as a five on the hourly chart. For these reasons I would consider this alternate to be a good wave count.

If minute wave iv continues further as a double zigzag it may be likely to reach up to about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave iii, to just above 417.79.

Within minuette wave (y) subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 397.54 (before subminuette wave c is completed).
Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 426.40. If this wave count is invalidated then we may use the second alternate below.

Second Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart hourly second alternate 2013

This wave count is identical to the first two hourly wave counts up to the high of minute wave ii. Thereafter, I have simply moved the degree of labeling down one degree.

It is possible the minute wave iii is not over and is extending further.

Movement above 426.40 would invalidate both the first two hourly wave counts and confirm this alternate. If price does not move above 426.40 then this alternate would still remain valid.

It would be likely that minuette wave (ii) may not be over and may continue higher as a double zigzag structure. I would expect it to end just a little above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i) at 417.79.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 437.99.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th April, 2013

Yesterday’s main wave count expected Thursday’s session to most likely open with a little downwards movement to about 1,570.66 or below, before turning back up to reach new highs during the session.

Price did not move lower. Movement above 1,583 indicated clearly it would not, and that it would continue higher towards upwards targets. Price has remained contained within the parallel channel on the hourly chart.

We still have the same two wave counts. The alternate is close to invalidation.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th April, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2013

Last analysis of gold expected it was likely that a fourth wave correction was over and price should move lower. However, it was also stated that without a clear five down and a new low we could not eliminate the possibility that the fourth wave correction may continue. This is what has happened. Price remains below the invalidation point at 1,540.24 and the wave count remains valid.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed the middle of it.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i and ii are complete and minute wave iii is nearing its end.

At 1,273 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. This gives us a short term target zone of only $6 which should be met within the week.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

When minute wave iii is complete then the following correction for minute wave iv may not move back into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,555.16.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

There are thirteen possible corrective structures. This is the crux of the difficulty with Elliott wave analysis. Which structure will unfold? When is it over?

I have looked at several different possibilities for this fourth wave correction and each possibility concludes that it cannot be over. I expect some more upwards movement.

The best fit in terms of subdivisions is a rare triple zigzag structure.

Within the first zigzag of the triple, subminuette wave w, micro wave C is 1.69 longer than equality with micro wave A.

Within the first subminuette wave x there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Within the second zigzag of the triple, subminuette wave y, there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Within the second subminuette wave x there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Subminuette wave z is incomplete. At 1,451 micro wave C within subminuette wave z would reach equality in length with micro wave A.

We may draw a best fit parallel channel about minuette wave (iv). So far most movement is contained within this channel, only the first subminuette wave x overshoots the channel. When this channel is clearly and strongly breached by downwards movement we shall have an indication that minuette wave (iv) is over and minuette wave (v) is underway.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated at minute wave degree with movement above 1,540.24.

US Oil Update – 24th April, 2013

If price moves above 91.99 my main wave count would be invalidated. This is the alternate I would use.

However, if the main wave count is invalidated I would want to do further work on finding new alternates, to consider all possibilities. At this stage the chart below is the highest probability alternate I can see. I may have more for you next week.

Good luck!

Click on the chart below to enlarge.

Alternate Oil Wave Count.

US Oil daily alternate 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis again expected upwards movement from both hourly wave counts which is what happened. The main wave count expected momentum to decrease which is also what happened.

With price remaining below the invalidation point on the alternate wave count both wave counts remain valid.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2013

US Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd April, 2013

Last week’s analysis had a short term target for some upwards movement at 89.21 to 89.41.

Price has moved higher and so far is 0.23 above the target. But the structure is incomplete. I have calculated a new target for you this week.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i and ii are complete. Within minute wave iii minuette waves (i), (ii) and (iii) may be complete. Recent movement may be minuette wave (iv). Minuette wave (iii) was 0.54 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). I would not expect to see a ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

Minuette waves (i) and (iii) both lasted four days. Minuette wave (ii) lasted a Fibonacci three days. So far minuette wave (iv) has lasted six days. If it continues for another two days it would have lasted a Fibonacci eight.

Minor wave 3 must make a new low below the end of minor wave 1 at 84.07.

At 71.33 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 91.99.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart 2013

So far the structure within minuette wave (iv) has the appearance and behaviour of an expanded flat, but the subdivisions of a double zigzag.

The key is the upwards movement labeled subminuette wave w. This cannot be seen as a five wave structure. It subdivides into a three.

Within the second zigzag labeled subminuette wave y micro wave A subdivides into a leading contracting diagonal. Micro wave B is an expanded flat. Micro wave C so far looks most likely to be an ending diagonal because within it submicro wave (1) subdivides on the fifteen minute chart as a zigzag.

Within an ending diagonal all the subwaves must subdivide into zigzags. This is the only time you would see a third wave labeled as anything other than an impulse. Within an ending diagonal it must be a zigzag.

Within the ending diagonal of micro wave C submicro wave (4) should overlap back into submicro wave (1) price territory, and may not move beyond the end of submicro wave (2). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 87.82 before the structure of micro wave C is complete.

At 91.07 micro wave C would reach equality in length with micro wave A. This target may be two days away.

When micro wave C ending diagonal is complete we should expect new downwards movement for minuette wave (v).

Draw a channel about subminuette wave y as a best fit. When this channel is clearly breached by downwards movement then expect that minuette wave (iv) is complete and minuette wave (v) downwards has begun.