AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th March, 2013

Last analysis expected price to move lower for a few days which is exactly what happened for Apple. Movement below 457.98 confirmed that Apple had seen a short term trend change and at that stage I had more confidence that it should continue lower.

The wave count remains the same and is unfolding as expected.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart daily 2013

This main wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 may be extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate wave (1) is a complete five wave structure and intermediate wave (2) may have just begun.

I would expect at this early stage for intermediate wave (2) to be relatively deep reaching to about 527.51, the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1).

A parallel channel drawn using Elliott’s channeling technique about intermediate wave (1) is clearly breached by upwards movement. This is trend channel confirmation that for now the downwards movement is over and a new upwards trend has begun.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1). This main daily wave count is invalidated with movement above 594.59. If price moves above this point then we may use the alternate wave count below.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is months away.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart hourly 2013

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave A is complete as a five wave impulse. This indicates that intermediate wave (2) is unfolding as a zigzag, or a multiple with the first structure a zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave B is incomplete and is also unfolding most likely as a zigzag.

Within minute wave a minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i). At 437.5 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: subminuette wave iii is just 0.75 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii.

If minor wave B is a zigzag then within it minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a. This wave count is invalidated at minute wave degree with movement above 469.95 in the short term.

When minute wave a is complete then upwards movement for minute wave b should last a couple of days.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement below 419.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart alternate daily 2013

If the main daily wave count is invalidated with upwards movement above 594.59 then this alternate would be confirmed.

If cycle wave a is subdividing into a three wave structure then within it primary wave A may be a complete zigzag. Cycle wave a may be unfolding as a flat correction.

Within primary wave A intermediate waves (A) and (C) have no Fibonacci ratio to each other.

The parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s technique about a correction is clearly breached by upwards movement. The downwards zigzag is over and an upwards trend has begun.

Primary wave B must subdivide into a three wave structure, most likely a zigzag.

If cycle wave a is a flat correction then primary wave B must reach at least 90% the length of primary wave A at 676.46.

Primary wave B may make a new high above 705.07. Primary wave B should last about six months.

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