AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th March, 2013

Last analysis of AAPL expected downwards movement to increase in momentum. Price has moved slightly lower, and has remained below the invalidation point on the hourly chart, but momentum has not increased.

The wave count remains the same. It may be that we shall yet see an increase in momentum downwards, but if we do not then the alternate daily wave count at the end of this anlaysis would be a good explanation. It too expects downwards movement but targets are closer.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Daily Chart 2013

This main wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse price is within a third wave at primary degree. The strongest part of downwards movement is yet to unfold.

At 365 minor wave 3 would reach equality with minor wave 1. While minor wave 3 is in progress no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. In the short term this daily wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 484.94.

At 356 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. Thereafter, primary wave 4 should last a couple of weeks to a month or so and may not move back into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated at that stage with movement above 505.75. This is the price point which differentiates this main wave count from the alternate daily chart below.

At this stage upwards movement for a small correction may have found some resistance about the upper edge of this best fit parallel channel.

AAPL Elliott Wave Hourly Chart 2013

Although price moved lower it followed that with a lot of sideways movement. We may have subminuette wave i complete within minuette wave (iii) and subminuette wave ii incomplete.

Within subminuette wave ii micro wave A subdivides into a five wave impulse and micro wave B may be a completing triangle. At 437.6 micro wave C would reach 0.618 the length of micro wave A. This may end subminuette wave ii.

Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated at subminuette wave degree with movement above 439.01. If price moves above that point it may be a continuation of minuette wave (ii) and the second higher invalidation point should hold.

Thereafter, subminuette wave iii must make a new low below the end of subminuette wave i at 425.36 and should show an increase in downwards momentum.

At 384.9 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Thereafter, minuette wave (iv) should move price sideways in a small correction.

At 375 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated at minuette degree with movement above 452.44.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Daily Chart Alternate 2013

If momentum downwards fails to increase then this alternate would be a good explanation.

If cycle wave a is unfolding as a flat then primary wave A within it may be a zigzag.

At 409 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1.

At 395 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

When primary wave A is complete then primary wave B must reach at least 90% the length of primary wave A, and may make a new high. At that stage if price moves above 505.75 the main wave count above would be invalidated and this alternate would be confirmed. If that happens then we will know that price must continue to rise to the point where primary wave B equals 90% of primary wave A, at minimum.