AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th March, 2013

The last three days has seen a small degree correction begin. Price has remained well below the invalidation point on the hourly chart and within the parallel channel also. This wave count is unfolding as expected.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This main wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse price is within a third wave at primary degree. The strongest part of downwards movement is yet to unfold.

At 365 minor wave 3 would reach equality with minor wave 1. While minor wave 3 is in progress no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. In the short term this daily wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 484.94.

At 356 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. Thereafter, primary wave 4 should last a couple of weeks to a month or so and may not move back into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated at that stage with movement above 505.75. This is the price point which differentiates this main wave count from the alternate daily chart below.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Minuette wave (i) did not move price lower as I had expected; it was already complete at last analysis. The following upwards correction for minuette wave (ii) was expected to last from a couple of hours to a day or so. It is likely to be over now and lasted just over one day.

Ratios within minuette wave (ii) are: subminuette wave iii is 0.88 short of 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii of minuette wave (i) are: micro wave 3 is 1.48 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.48 longer than equality with micro wave 3.

Within minuette wave (ii) there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves a and c.

If minuette wave (ii) is over as a single zigzag structure then minuette wave (iii) has just begun.

Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave i is a complete impulse on the five minute chart, and subminuette wave ii is a longer lasting double combination.

At 418.13 subminuette wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i. This short term target may be only one to three or so days away.

At 401.81 minuette wave (iii) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i). This target may be at least a week away.

If the final wave within subminuette wave ii moves any higher it may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated in the short term at subminuette wave degree with movement above 435.25.

If price moves above 435.25 then upwards movement would likely be a continuation of minuette wave (ii) as a double zigzag or double combination. At that stage the invalidation point would move up to 452.44. Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i).

It looks likely on the five minute chart that the structure for subminuette wave ii is complete. If this is correct then we should see some strong downwards movement from Apple over the next few days as the middle of a third wave begins to unfold.

I have drawn a best fit parallel channel about this downwards movement. I would expect price to find strong resistance about the upper edge of this channel, and eventually to break through support at the lower edge as the momentum of a third wave builds.

The target for minute wave iii to end remains the same. At 375 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.