Monthly Archives: March 2013

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th March, 2013

Last analysis expected price to move lower for a few days which is exactly what happened for Apple. Movement below 457.98 confirmed that Apple had seen a short term trend change and at that stage I had more confidence that it should continue lower.

The wave count remains the same and is unfolding as expected.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart daily 2013

This main wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 may be extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate wave (1) is a complete five wave structure and intermediate wave (2) may have just begun.

I would expect at this early stage for intermediate wave (2) to be relatively deep reaching to about 527.51, the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1).

A parallel channel drawn using Elliott’s channeling technique about intermediate wave (1) is clearly breached by upwards movement. This is trend channel confirmation that for now the downwards movement is over and a new upwards trend has begun.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1). This main daily wave count is invalidated with movement above 594.59. If price moves above this point then we may use the alternate wave count below.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is months away.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart hourly 2013

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave A is complete as a five wave impulse. This indicates that intermediate wave (2) is unfolding as a zigzag, or a multiple with the first structure a zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave B is incomplete and is also unfolding most likely as a zigzag.

Within minute wave a minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i). At 437.5 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: subminuette wave iii is just 0.75 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii.

If minor wave B is a zigzag then within it minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a. This wave count is invalidated at minute wave degree with movement above 469.95 in the short term.

When minute wave a is complete then upwards movement for minute wave b should last a couple of days.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement below 419.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart alternate daily 2013

If the main daily wave count is invalidated with upwards movement above 594.59 then this alternate would be confirmed.

If cycle wave a is subdividing into a three wave structure then within it primary wave A may be a complete zigzag. Cycle wave a may be unfolding as a flat correction.

Within primary wave A intermediate waves (A) and (C) have no Fibonacci ratio to each other.

The parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s technique about a correction is clearly breached by upwards movement. The downwards zigzag is over and an upwards trend has begun.

Primary wave B must subdivide into a three wave structure, most likely a zigzag.

If cycle wave a is a flat correction then primary wave B must reach at least 90% the length of primary wave A at 676.46.

Primary wave B may make a new high above 705.07. Primary wave B should last about six months.

DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th March, 2013

Last analysis expected a triangle to end for a fourth wave correction to be followed by more upwards movement to new highs. The triangle as I had it labeled on last week’s hourly chart was incorrect and was invalidated. However, a triangle did complete. The triangle was longer lasting than originally labeled and was followed by upwards movement.

Continue reading DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th March, 2013

Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th March, 2013

Last analysis expected more upwards movement before a short term trend change. Upwards movement did make a new high and complete the structure.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun. Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 is underway.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i is complete and minute wave ii is either complete as a single zigzag (main hourly wave count) or is half way done as a double combination or double zigzag (alternate hourly wave count).

At 1,488 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This target is at least a couple of weeks away.

At 1,431 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). This target is a few weeks away.

At 1,398 primary wave C would reach equality in length with primary wave A. This target is still weeks to months away.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated at minute degree with movement above 1,696.26.

The parallel channel drawn here is a best fit. I would expect upwards movement for minute wave ii to find resistance about the upper edge of this channel.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

It is most likely that minute wave ii is over as a single zigzag because this would see it nicely in proportion to minute wave i. If it is over then it reached just to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i.

Because the first wave downwards labeled subminuette wave i subdivides into a zigzag and not an impulse it is likely that minute wave iii is beginning with a leading diagonal.

The diagonal is expanding because subminuette wave iii is longer than subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave iv is longer than subminuette wave ii. This means we may expect subminuette wave v to be at least as long as subminuette wave iii, so downwards movement should reach to 1,584 or below.

When the diagonal is complete with the last wave down then we may expect the following correction for minuette wave (ii) to be very deep.

Within the diagonal subminuette wave iv may not move beyond the end of subminuette wave ii. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,613.15.

If price moves above 1,613.15 we may use the alternate below.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart alternate 2013

If we move the labeling within minute wave ii all down one degree we may have seen only the first structure in a double complete. The double would be joined by a three in the opposite direction labeled minuette wave (x).

The second corrective structure so far looks most like a zigzag. Within the zigzag subminuette waves a and b are complete. Subminuette wave c would be most likely incomplete.

The purpose of double zigzags is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag did not move price far enough. I would expect minuette wave (y) to take price closer to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i at 1,646. At 1,638 subminuette wave c would reach 2.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

Within subminuette wave c micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,591.47.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th March, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected Wednesday’s session to begin with a little upwards movement to a short term target at 1,568 before price dropped lower. This is not what happened as the session began with downwards movement, but price has remained well above the invalidation point on the hourly chart and the wave count remains the same.

I have a new hourly alternate for you today.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th March, 2013

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th March, 2013

Last analysis for AAPL expected price to continue higher to a short term target at 471.82. Upwards movement did continue, reaching up to 469.95 so far, 1.87 short of the target.

This analysis expects to see choppy overlapping generally trending downwards movement for the next few days as minor wave B unfolds.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart daily 2013

This main wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 may be extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate wave (1) is a complete five wave structure and intermediate wave (2) may have just begun.

I would expect at this early stage for intermediate wave (2) to be relatively deep reaching to about 527.51 the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1).

A parallel channel drawn using Elliott’s channeling technique about intermediate wave (1) is clearly breached by upwards movement. This is trend channel confirmation that for now the downwards movement is over and a new upwards trend has begun.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1). This main daily wave count is invalidated with movement above 594.59. If price moves above this point then we may use the alternate wave count below.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is months away.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart hourly 2013

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave A may now be complete. Minor wave A subdivides best as a five wave impulse so intermediate wave (2) is most likely to be a zigzag.

Ratios within minor wave A are: minute wave iii is 3.23 longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is 1.87 short of equality with minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave v are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.81 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.64 longer than equality with minuette wave (iii).

Within minor wave A minuette wave v lasted a Fiboancci five hours. Within minuette wave v minuette wave (i) lasted a Fibonacci 1 hour, minuette wave (ii) lasted a Fibonacci two hours, minuette wave (iii) lasted a Fibonacci five hours, minuette wave (iv) lasted a Fibonacci two hours, and minuette wave (v) lasted a Fibonacci three hours.

Within the rest of minor wave A I can find no other adequate Fibonacci time relationships.

If minor wave A is over now then we may expect choppy overlapping downwards movement for minor wave B. At this early stage it is impossible to tell what structure may unfold; there are thirteen possible structures. If minor wave B is a flat correction it may make a new price extreme beyond the end of minor wave A so there can be no upper invalidation point for minor wave B at this stage.

When price moves outside of the parallel channel containing minor wave A we shall have trend channel confirmation that minor wave B has begun.

Movement below 457.98 may not be a fourth wave correction within minute wave v of minor wave A, and at that stage minute wave v and minor wave A must be over. At that stage we shall have price confirmation that minor wave B is underway.

Within a zigzag minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 419.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart alternate daily 2013

If the main daily wave count is invalidated with upwards movement above 594.59 then this alternate would be confirmed.

If cycle wave a is subdividing into a three wave structure then within it primary wave A may be a complete zigzag. Cycle wave a may be unfolding as a flat correction.

Within primary wave A intermediate waves (A) and (C) have no Fibonacci ratio to each other.

The parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s technique about a correction is clearly breached by upwards movement. The downwards zigzag is over and an upwards trend has begun.

Primary wave B must subdivide into a three wave structure, most likely a zigzag.

If cycle wave a is a flat correction then primary wave B must reach at least 90% the length of primary wave A at 676.46.

Primary wave B may make a new high above 705.07. Primary wave B should last about six months.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th March, 2013

Movement to a new high has invalidated the fourth wave triangle. However, the alternate hourly wave count does not have the right look.

I have adjusted the hourly wave count. It is very likely that the fourth wave is over. The only question now is on the structure of the fifth wave; it may be either an impulse or an ending diagonal.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th March, 2013

DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd March, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected the week to start with some downwards movement to a target at 14,397. The week did start with price moving lower to reach down to 14.91 points below the target.

Price continued the week in sideways movement in an ever decreasing range, indicating a possible triangle. If the triangle remains valid we shall have a high probability movement next in a sharp thrust out of the triangle, in the same direction of entry.

Continue reading DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd March, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd March, 2013

Last analysis expected to see upwards movement for Friday and price has moved higher. However, I had expected to see a new high which did not happen.

Sideways movement over most of this week indicates a triangle unfolding. If this structure remains valid then we can know with a high probability that price will exit the triangle in the same direction it entered.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd March, 2013