AAPL Elliott Wave Analysis – 26th February, 2013

Elliott Wave chart analysis for AAPL for 26th February, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

To see monthly charts analysis click here.

I still have two wave counts at the daily chart level. At the hourly chart level exactly the same direction is expected next; they do not yet diverge.

Main Wave Count.

AAPL daily 2012

This main wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse price is within a third wave at primary degree. The strongest part of downwards movement is yet to unfold.

At 365 minor wave 3 would reach equality with minor wave 1. While minor wave 3 is in progress no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. In the short term this daily wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 484.94.

At 356 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. Thereafter, primary wave 4 should last a couple of weeks to a month or so and may not move back into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated at that stage with movement above 505.75. This is the price point which differentiates this main wave count from the alternate daily chart below.

AAPL hourly 2012

Since last analysis minuette wave (iv) moved higher, remaining below the invalidation point at 463.22.

Thereafter, price made a new low for minuette wave (v). The target for minuette wave (v) was at 428. Price fell well short of this target.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i is now most likely complete. Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.06 short of 0.618 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Upwards movement over the last three days is likely the start of a longer lasting second wave correction for minute wave ii.

Second waves are often deep corrections. I will expect minute wave ii to most likely reach to about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i at 467. Minute wave i lasted 10 days. I would expect minute wave ii to be about the same duration.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 484.94.

Alternate Wave Count.

AAPL daily alternate 2012

If momentum downwards fails to increase then this alternate would be a good explanation.

If cycle wave a is unfolding as a flat then primary wave A within it may be a zigzag.

At 409 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1.

At 395 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

When primary wave A is complete then primary wave B must reach at least 90% the length of primary wave A, and may make a new high. At that stage if price moves above 505.75 the main wave count above would be invalidated and this alternate would be confirmed. If that happens then we will know that price must continue to rise to the point where primary wave B equals 90% of primary wave A, at minimum.