Monthly Archives: February 2013

Gold Elliott Wave Analysis – 27th February, 2013

Last week’s analysis of gold expected price to fall for the week. A new low was made and then price moved higher, remaining below the invalidation point on the daily chart.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) has begun. Within intermediate wave (3) price may have today moved into the middle of it. Minor wave 1 was a leading diagonal, and minor wave 2 zigzag was a 55% correction of minor wave 1.

Within the zigzags of intermediate wave (2) and minor wave 2 there are no Fibonacci ratios between the A and C waves.

At 1,488 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

At 1,431 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At this stage minute wave iii is most likely complete and has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i. Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This daily wave count is invalidated at minute degree with movement above 1,652.14.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

Gold hourly 2013

Because the upwards structure for minute wave iv is a complete zigzag and it already slightly overshoots the channel containing downwards movement it is likely that this correction is over.

Minuette wave (c) is just 1.76 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

Ratios within minuette wave (a) are: subminuette wave iii is 0.44 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.68 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

Minuette wave (b) is an expanded flat correction. Subminuette wave b is a 121% correction of subminuette wave a, and subminuette wave c is just 0.13 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

Ratios within minuette wave (c) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 1.62 short of 4.236 the length of subminuette wave i.

If minute wave iv is complete then within minute wave v minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,620.2.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

Gold hourly alternate 2013

If we move everything within minute wave iv down one degree we may have only seen minuette wave (a) within minute wave iv.

Minute wave iv may be unfolding as a flat correction, or as a double (if minuette wave (a) is relabeled as minuette wave (w) the first structure in a double).

If minute wave iv is unfolding as a flat correction then minuette wave (b) must reach at least 90% the length of minuette wave (a). This would be achieved at 1,562.

Minuette wave (b) may make a new low below the start of minuette wave (a), and for a flat is reasonably likely to do so. There can be no downwards price point which differentiates this alternate from the main wave count, and only the structure will indicate which wave count is correct. Minuette wave (b) must unfold as a three wave structure.

If minute wave iv is a double then there is no lower price point which minuette wave (x) would have to reach, but it must unfold as a three. Again, it is structure of this downwards wave which differentiates this alternate from the main wave count.

When minuette wave (b) (or minuette wave (x)) is complete then minuette wave (c) is likely to make a new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 1,620.20.

If minuete wave iv is a double combination then we would expect mostly sideways movement for a few days yet.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th February, 2013

Movement above 1,508.33 invalidated both hourly wave counts. I had expected downwards movement for Wednesday’s session which did not happen.

Both wave counts remain valid while no new high has been made.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th February, 2013

AAPL Elliott Wave Analysis – 26th February, 2013

Elliott Wave chart analysis for AAPL for 26th February, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

To see monthly charts analysis click here.

I still have two wave counts at the daily chart level. At the hourly chart level exactly the same direction is expected next; they do not yet diverge.

Main Wave Count.

AAPL daily 2012

This main wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse price is within a third wave at primary degree. The strongest part of downwards movement is yet to unfold.

At 365 minor wave 3 would reach equality with minor wave 1. While minor wave 3 is in progress no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. In the short term this daily wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 484.94.

At 356 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. Thereafter, primary wave 4 should last a couple of weeks to a month or so and may not move back into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated at that stage with movement above 505.75. This is the price point which differentiates this main wave count from the alternate daily chart below.

AAPL hourly 2012

Since last analysis minuette wave (iv) moved higher, remaining below the invalidation point at 463.22.

Thereafter, price made a new low for minuette wave (v). The target for minuette wave (v) was at 428. Price fell well short of this target.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i is now most likely complete. Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.06 short of 0.618 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Upwards movement over the last three days is likely the start of a longer lasting second wave correction for minute wave ii.

Second waves are often deep corrections. I will expect minute wave ii to most likely reach to about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i at 467. Minute wave i lasted 10 days. I would expect minute wave ii to be about the same duration.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 484.94.

Alternate Wave Count.

AAPL daily alternate 2012

If momentum downwards fails to increase then this alternate would be a good explanation.

If cycle wave a is unfolding as a flat then primary wave A within it may be a zigzag.

At 409 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1.

At 395 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

When primary wave A is complete then primary wave B must reach at least 90% the length of primary wave A, and may make a new high. At that stage if price moves above 505.75 the main wave count above would be invalidated and this alternate would be confirmed. If that happens then we will know that price must continue to rise to the point where primary wave B equals 90% of primary wave A, at minimum.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th February, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected more downwards movement with a couple of small fourth wave corrections along the way.

We did see a new low during Tuesday’s session, and two small fourth wave corrections have unfolded. Targets were too low though and have been recalculated.

At this stage the main and alternate wave counts do not diverge yet.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th February, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th February, 2013

Weekend analysis of the S&P 500 cash index expected Monday to begin with some upwards movement to a target at 1,519, and then for price to turn around and move lower. An increase in downwards momentum was expected although it did not necessarily have to arrive during Monday’s session.

Price did move higher to above our target, reaching up to 1,525.84, just above the next ratio at 1,523.74. Thereafter, price turned around and moved lower as expected. Momentum has begun to increase already.

The S&P is behaving exactly as expected so far. I still have two wave counts. They still expect the same movement next.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th February, 2013

US Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th February, 2013

Last week’s analysis of oil expected price to drop which is what has happened so far.

The wave count remains the same. To see the big picture on monthly charts click here.

This week’s analysis of oil will continue with a daily chart and a two hourly chart.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil daily 2013

Price has moved lower and is showing an increase in downwards momentum which is exactly what should be expected for a third wave. At this stage wave 3 blue cannot be complete and so a continuation of overall downwards movement for this week should be expected.

It is extremely likely that minor wave 2 is complete. A clear five down on the hourly or two hourly chart would add confidence. At this stage it could be argued that the two hourly chart shows a three down not a five. For that reason I will allow for the possible continuation further sideways of minor wave 2. Wave 2 may not move beyond the start of wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.43.

Minor wave 3 must make a new low below the end of minor wave 1 at 84.07.

At 71.33 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

US Oil hourly 2013

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i is most likely incomplete.

Within minute wave i minuette waves (i) and (ii) are likely complete and minuette wave (iii) is incomplete.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii is just 0.08 short of 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii. Within subminuette wave ii micro wave C has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave A.

Within minuette wave (ii) there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves a and c. Within subminuette wave a micro wave C is 0.04 longer than 0.382 the length if micro wave A. Within subminuette wave b micro wave C is 0.06 short of equality with micro wave A. Within subminuette wave c there are no Fibonacci ratios between micro waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within subminuette wave i within minute wave (iii) are: micro wave 3 is 0.09 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro waves 1 or 3.

Within subminuette wave ii within minute wave (iii) there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Within subminuette wave iii within minute wave (iii) micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1. Micro wave 3 is shorter than micro wave 1 which gives a limit to micro wave 5 at 90.63. This target is also a downwards limit for micro wave 5.

When micro wave 5 completes subminuette wave iii the following subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated at that stage with movement above 95.21.

At 89.70 minute wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave (i).

DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2013

Last week’s analysis of the Dow expected an end to a fourth wave correction to be followed by a new high. However, the structure for the correction was incorrect on both hourly wave counts.

Price did make a new high and has remained below the maximum point. The wave count at the daily chart level remains correct.

Continue reading DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2013

Last analysis expected to see some upwards movement for Friday’s session which was expected to last for some or all of the session. Upwards movement lasted for the whole session and has remained below the invalidation point.

The wave count is the same and so far is describing recent movement nicely. Both the main and alternate wave counts expect the same movement next; they do not yet diverge and may not diverge for another couple of sessions.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2013

AAPL Elliott Wave Analysis – 21st February, 2013

Elliott Wave chart analysis for AAPL for 21st February, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

To see monthly charts and my alternate analysis go here. Only the main wave count is analysed below.

AAPL daily 2012

I have adjusted this main wave count to see intermediate wave (3) as extending. This expects momentum to increase to the downside.

At 365 minor wave 3 would reach equality with minor wave 1. While minor wave 3 is in progress no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. In the short term this daily wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 484.94.

At 356 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. Thereafter, primary wave 4 should last a couple of weeks to a month or so and may not move back into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated at that stage with movement above 505.75. This is the price point which differentiates this main wave count from the alternate detailed in last analysis here.

AAPL hourly 2012

This hourly chart shows the downwards movement for the start of minor wave 3.

Within minor wave 3 so far minute wave i may be complete.

Within minute wave i minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), so we may expect it is more likely that minuette wave (v) will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

It is likely that minuette wave (iv) is complete as a flat. At 428 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

If minuette wave (iv) is not over and moves further sideways as a double flat, or double combination, then it may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. At this stage the hourly wave count is invalidated with movement above 463.22.

The channels is drawn first with a trend line from the lows of minuette wave (i) to (iii), then a parallel copy is placed upon the high of minuette wave (ii). Minuette wave (iv) remains contained within the channel so it is likely it is over here. We may expect minuette wave (v) to end about the lower edge of the channel.

A breach of this channel may indicate that minute wave i is complete and minute wave ii is underway. At that stage the invalidation point would move up to the start of minute wave i at 484.94.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st February, 2013

Last analysis expected downwards movement from the S&P 500 for Thursday’s session, with a small correction along the way which should have finished during the session. This is exactly what happened.

I have two wave counts. In the short term they expect exactly the same movement next. They may not diverge yet for another couple of sessions or so.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st February, 2013