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Last week’s analysis had two wave counts for the Dow. Movement lower during the week indicated the main wave count was correct.

This week I have the same main daily wave count with two hourly wave counts.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

DOW daily 2012

At the monthly chart level this wave count sees a common structure of a double flat unfolding at super cycle degree, and within the second flat primary waves A and B are complete. Primary wave B is a 139% correction of primary wave A.

From the end of primary wave B I have moved labeling up one degree this week. I may consider moving it up one more degree in coming weeks.

Upwards movement may be a completed wave 2 blue.

Wave 1 blue lasted 28 days. Wave 2 blue completed as a zigzag in 21 days.

Wave 3 blue would reach 1.618 the length of wave 1 blue at 11,440. Wave 3 blue should last about two to three weeks.

Within wave 3 blue no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 13,365.86.

DOW hourly 2012

Downwards movement continued last week to complete an impulse for wave i pink, with an extended fifth wave within it.

Ratios within wave i pink are: wave (iii) green has no Fibonacci ratio to wave (i) green, and wave (v) green is just 0.6 points short of 1.618 the length of wave (i) green.

Wave ii pink subdivides into a sharp zigzag on the five minute chart so it may be over here.

At 12,481 wave iii pink would reach 1.618 the length of wave i pink.

The green channel drawn about wave i pink is drawn using Elliott’s first technique. Wave ii pink breaches this channel indicating wave i pink was over and wave ii pink had begun.

Within wave iii pink no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 13,127.83. If this invalidation point is breached then we may use the alternate below.

DOW hourly alternate 2012

If we move the degree of labeling within wave ii pink all down one degree then it may not be over and may be unfolding as an expanded flat correction.

Movement above 13,127.83 would confirm this wave count.

At 13,189 wave (c) green would reach 1.618 the length of wave (a) green. That would see wave ii pink end just below 0.618 the length of wave i pink.

Wave ii pink may not move beyond the start of wave i pink. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 13,365.86.