S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th December, 2012

Last analysis expected Thursday’s session to begin with a very little downwards movement, followed by upwards movement. This is exactly what has happened.

The wave count remains the same as yesterday. The mid term target remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

S&P 500 daily 2012

The structure for primary wave B is a triple zigzag, and price is now within the third zigzag in the triple labeled wave (Z) black.

Wave (Z) black is incomplete and is unfolding as an exaggerated zigzag.

Wave A blue must be truncated to subdivide into a five wave structure.

At 1,470 wave C blue would reach 0.618 the length of wave A blue. About this point primary wave B would also be only 139% of primary wave A. Movement to slightly above 1,470 would avoid a truncation and keep the length of primary wave B closer to the common maximum of 138%.

There is no upper invalidation point for this wave count, but significant movement above 1,470 has a low probability.

Wave A blue lasted 87 days (2 short of a Fibonacci 89). Wave B blue lasted 28 days. I would expect wave C blue to be about 34 days in duration. So far it has only lasted 23 days and it should continue for another couple of weeks or so.

Wave C blue must subdivide into a five wave structure as either an ending diagonal or an impulse. An ending diagonal requires all subwaves to subdivide as zigzags and because the first wave upwards labeled i pink is a five wave impulse an ending diagonal may be eliminated. Wave C blue must be unfolding as an impulse. The structure is incomplete and requires further upwards movement.

Recent upwards movement from the low labeled wave B blue at 1,343.35 looks like a smaller fractal of the upwards movement from the low labeled wave (X) black.

S&P 500 hourly 2012

As expected wave B purple moved lower. Wave B purple is a 42% correction of wave A purple. Within wave B purple there is no Fibonacci ratio between waves (A) and (C) aqua.

If wave B purple continues further as a double zigzag or double combination it may not move beyond the start of wave A purple. In the short term (the next session) this wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,411.88.

Wave C purple has very likely now begun. At 1,455 wave C purple would reach 0.618 the length of wave A purple and wave v orange would be longer than wave iii orange.

When wave C purple is a complete five wave structure then the entire leading expanding diagonal of wave (i) green would be complete. At that stage we should expect a very deep correction for wave (ii) green to follow.

Wave (ii) green may not move beyond the start of wave (i) green. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,385.43.

2 thoughts on “S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th December, 2012

    1. The data I’m using for this analysis is the cash index and market hours data only.

      Price remains above the short term invalidation point so the wave count remains valid. Price looks like it may find support at the lower trend line.

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