Price moved lower during Thursday’s session, which was expected for all three hourly wave counts, but downwards movement was more than was expected. Both the alternate hourly wave counts are invalid and the main wave count required adjustment. Overall this movement looks like a continuation of the correction I had expected to unfold during Thursday’s session.
I have just one daily and one hourly wave count for you today. At this stage the situation looks clearer.
Last analysis expected more sideways movement for Wednesday’s session, which is exactly what we have seen. The S&P 500 remains bound within a small range.
I still have just one daily wave count with three alternate hourly wave counts looking at recent movement over the last few days differently. At this stage all three alternate wave counts expect mostly the same movement next. Their invalidation points are close together and the final target is the same.
The S&P 500 moved a little lower to start the session which is what the main wave count (and the hourly alternate) expected. Thereafter, price moved a little higher to see mostly overall sideways movement for this session.
The sole daily chart for this analysis has the same target. I have three alternate hourly charts today, with the first two charts expecting mostly the same movement for the next couple of sessions, or so, and only the duration differs.
The S&P 500 has moved lower invalidating the main hourly chart and providing initial confirmation of the alternate. The main daily wave count remains valid. While price remains above the invalidation point on the daily chart we do not have confirmation of a trend change.
We still have the same wave counts at monthly chart level. To see a full analysis of the bigger picture see yesterday’s analysis here.
Movement above 1,422.38 has invalidated the main wave count and confirmed the alternate.
The situation is changed at intermediate degree. I will cover monthly and weekly charts today to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
I have two wave counts at the monthly chart level which have quite different outcomes. The main wave count has a higher probability simply because it has a common structure while the alternate has a lower probability because it has the rarest Elliott wave structure.