In yesterday’s analysis I expected a small upwards correction to be followed by downwards movement, and my wave count overall expected price to move lower. We have a new low today. The small correction I expected did not happen straight away, but looks like it happened at the end of Thursday’s session.
So far this wave count continues to be correct and is nicely explaining price action for us. I expect the trend to continue until the short and then mid term targets are reached.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st May, 2012
As expected from yesterday’s analysis, there was almost no room left for upwards movement and price had to move lower.
At this stage mid and long term targets remain the same. We may now also use Elliott’s channeling technique to show us where price should be contained within this next structure.
I still have two daily wave counts but they have exactly the same targets and invalidation points, and they do not diverge at this stage.
I have only one hourly wave count again today.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th May, 2012
Price has moved higher to complete a small correction. The triangle structure was invalidated, but price has remained below the invalidation point for the correction.
I still have two daily wave counts, but both expect exactly the same direction next and targets are the same.
I have only one hourly wave count today.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th May, 2012
I currently have three monthly charts for the Dow.
The main monthly wave count is the wave count I follow with daily analysis. It sees the Dow as within the second structure of a double flat or double combination at super cycle degree.
The first alternate wave count looks at a very rare expanding triangle at super cycle degree. The rarity of this structure significantly reduces the probability of this alternate wave count.
The second alternate wave count has a very low probability because it has to see what looks clearly like a three as a five. Only with a new all time high could I really take this alternate wave count seriously.
Continue reading DJIA Historic Analysis – 25th May, 2012
Price has moved mostly sideways for the whole week. I had expected a fourth wave correction to arrive last week, but I expected the third wave to move lower first, which did not happen.
I still have just the one daily and one hourly wave counts this week. The structure unfolding on the hourly chart so far looks so typical and good I have a high level of confidence in my prediction for what should happen when it is complete.
Continue reading DJIA Elliott Wave Analysis – 25th May, 2012
Price has again moved sideways within a very small range and this has prompted me to switch my main and alternate hourly charts around today. What was the alternate wave count now has the right look, with one subwave having moved slightly higher by 0.06 points.
The main and alternate daily wave counts have the same target and same invalidation point. They differ only in their expectation of how the structure downwards will unfold.
The main and alternate hourly charts also have the same target but slightly different invalidation points.
I have moved everything up one degree after taking another look at the historic wave counts on the monthly charts. This makes more sense now and wave degrees fit better with expected durations.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th May, 2012
Price has moved sideways again in a decreasing range. My alternate hourly chart may be correct, which would explain all the sideways movement over the last few days. The mid term target for my main and alternate hourly charts is identical, the only question is when will the target be reached?
I have two daily charts with identical long term targets, and two hourly charts also with identical targets. They only differ in the structure expected to reach targets.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th May, 2012
Last analysis expected downwards movement during Wednesday’s session. The S&P 500 did make a new low, and thereafter bounced back upwards. Price remains below the invalidation point on the hourly chart and the wave count looks correct.
I will expect the mid term target to be met now next week, and not at the end of this week. The long term target is still months away.
I have one main daily wave count and I have developed a new alternate today. It expects exactly the same direction, but the subdivisions are different. This has no effect on expectations at this stage, but when it diverges I will define a price point which differentiates the two wave counts.
I still have the main and alternate hourly charts, with the alternate reducing further in probability today.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd May, 2012
I had expected overall downwards movement for Tuesday’s session and price has moved sideways closing less than a point higher than the open.
I have only one daily wave count and two hourly wave counts again today. The main hourly wave count now has increased in probability and is much more likely than the alternate.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd May, 2012
I had expected a little more downwards movement towards a target at 1,280 for Monday’s session before an upwards correction began, but the correction has begun at the beginning of the new trading week.
Movement above 1,307.45 confirmed a small degree correction was underway. At that stage the parallel channel on the hourly chart, redrawn using Elliott’s technique, may show where this correction should find resistance.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st May, 2012