Monthly Archives: April 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th April, 2012

As expected from last analysis the S&P 500 has moved lower today. If my main wave count is correct the mid term target may be reached by the end of this week or next.

When price moves below the invalidation point for the alternate daily wave count then we may have significant increased confidence in the main wave count. This price point is an important differentiator.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th April, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th April, 2012

Yesterday’s main wave count expected at least a little upwards movement. Our target of 1,395 to 1,396 was exceeded by just over 6 points.

Both our main and alternate daily wave counts remain valid. We still need to see price break out of this range before we shall have clarity. However, the main wave count does remain more likely because subdivisions have a better fit.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th April, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th April, 2012

Yesterday I had a strong expectation of downwards movement for Wednesday’s session, which is not what we have seen. Price has reentered the parallel channel on the alternate chart.

Both our main and alternate wave counts remain valid. The sideways movement of the last several days has not provided any clarity at all. We need to see price break out of this range to illuminate which wave count is more likely.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th April, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2012

Our main wave count yesterday expected downwards movement. Price moved above the invalidation point on our hourly chart, which was very close by, but remains well below the invalidation point on the daily chart and the wave count remains valid.

Importantly price has found resistance at the lower edge of the parallel channel on the alternate daily chart. We now have a clear trend channel breach.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd April, 2012

As our main wave counts, both daily and hourly, expected, the S&P 500 has moved lower. Price has not quite breached our confidence point on the daily chart though. If it does tomorrow we shall have clarity; at that stage our main wave count would significantly increase in probability and our alternate would decrease.

Price has broken through resistance on the lower edge of the parallel channel of our alternate daily wave count. This is significant and may indicate a proper channel breach is imminent.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd April, 2012

DJIA Elliott Wave Analysis – 20th April, 2012

I had expected downwards movement for the Dow as most likely for this week. This is not what we have seen, but upwards movement looks strongly corrective and price remains below the invalidation point on our main wave count.

If my main wave count is correct then next week should see downwards movement with increasing momentum. If my alternate wave count is correct then next week should see upwards movement, also with increasing momentum. We may use confirmation / invalidation points to work with these two wave counts next week. When price breaks out of a defined range we shall have clarity and only one wave count.

Continue reading DJIA Elliott Wave Analysis – 20th April, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th April, 2012

With price moving mostly sideways in a small range for Friday’s session the situation remains unclear at the end of the week.

We still have two wave counts with the main wave count having a slightly higher probability than the alternate, mostly because the subdivisions have a better fit on the daily chart.

Hopefully next week price will break out of the range it was trading in last week, giving us some clarity.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th April, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th April, 2012

Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards movement which is what we have seen for Thursday’s session. Price has again found strong support at the lower edge of the parallel channel on our alternate daily wave count. Tomorrow’s session will again be crucial. Will price break through this resistance increasing the probability of our main wave count? Or will price again bounce upwards from here increasing the probability of our alternate wave count?

For the main wave count I have again two hourly wave counts looking at most recent movement slightly differently.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th April, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th April, 2012

The S&P500 has moved slightly lower. Our main hourly wave count did allow for this possibility, but we were expecting a small amount of upwards movement for Wednesday’s session.

We still have the two daily wave counts, with the main wave count having a slightly higher probability than the alternate.

For our main wave count today I have two hourly wave counts, looking at most recent movement in a slightly different way.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th April, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th April, 2012

With price remaining firmly within the parallel channel on our alternate daily chart we must accept today that the possibility of a new high has increased.

The S&P 500 has not given us the confirmation of a trend change that we were waiting for. Without confirmation our alternate wave count remains viable.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th April, 2012