DJIA Elliott Wave Analysis – 14th March, 2012

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the DJIA for 14th March, 2012. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

DOW daily 2012

This main daily wave count sees wave (B) black as a double zigzag correction.

With the new high set on the 13th is was clear that we have not seen a trend change and that further upwards movement should be expected.

Waves (i) through (iv) green Within wave c pink of wave Y blue are seen as complete and we expect one final impulse to complete the whole correction for wave (B) black.

At 13,387.66 wave (v) green would reach .618 the length of wave (iii) green.

At 14,205.82 wave (B) black would reach 138% the length of wave (A) black which is the typical maximum for a B wave within a flat correction. We are therefore likely to see a trend change occur before price reaches 14,205.82.

Movement below 12,734.86 would invalidate this wave count as no second wave correction within wave (v) green may move beyond the start of the first wave.

DOW hourly 2012

This hourly wave count looks at the structure within wave (v) green of wave c pink.

There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio for wave iii orange with wave i orange within wave (v) green.

Ratios within wave iii orange of wave (v) green are: wave 3 purple has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to wave 1 purple and wave 5 purple is 14 points shorter than 2.618 the length of wave 1 purple.

Waves i through iii orange as seen as complete and sideways to down movement is expected within wave iv orange before possibly the final impulse to complete wave (v) green and likely the whole correction for wave (B) black.

The trend channel is constructed about wave (v) green by connecting the end of wave i orange to the end of wave iii orange and placing a parallel copy to contain price at the bottom. We are likely to see wave iv orange stay within the channel or slightly overshoot the bottom trend line before reversing higher within wave v orange.

Movement below 12,968.72 would invalidate this wave count as wave iv orange may not move into the price territory of wave i orange.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

DOW hourly alternate 2012

This alternate daily wave count differs from the main daily wave count in the structure within wave (B) black as wave (B) black is seen as a zigzag correction.

The direction expected by this alternate is the same as the main daily wave count.

At 13,785.26 wave v pink would reach equality with wave i pink to possibly complete wave (B) black.

Wave iv pink may however extend lower and sideways to unfold as an expanded flat. This however is unlikely as the upwards movement which would need to be labeled as wave (b) green within wave iv pink has already exceeded the typical maximum for a B wave within a flat correction which is 138% the length of wave A.

Movement below 12,257.67 would invalidate this wave count as wave iv pink may not move into the price territory of wave i pink.