DJIA Elliott Wave Analysis – 6th March, 2012

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the DJIA for 6th March, 2012. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

DOW daily 2012

This main daily wave count sees wave (B) black as complete and having unfolded as a double zigzag correction at blue degree with waves W, X and Y blue complete.

There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio for wave c pink with wave a pink within wave Y blue of wave (B) black.

Ratios within wave c pink are:  wave (iii) green has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to wave (i) green and wave (v) green is 31 points longer than .382 the length of the sum of waves (i) and (iii) green.

We may have seen a possible trend change within the last week, although we would need for price to continue lower providing us with at least a five wave impulse complete to indicate the start of a new larger degree impulsive structure lower.

Final confirmation would be with movement below 12,257.67 as our alternate daily wave count below would then not be a valid possibility anymore.

DOW hourly 2012

This hourly wave count looks at the final structure within wave (v) green of wave c pink as well as the latest downwards movement.

We can see a five wave impulse complete for wave (v) green with an ending diagonal for wave v orange within wave (v) green with all the sub waves as zigzags.

Downwards movement is now seen within possibly wave (C) black.  Once we can count this downwards movement as a complete impulse, then that would greatly increase the likelihood of a possible trend change as this wave count expects.

At 12,703.12 wave 3 purple would reach 2.618 the length of wave 1 purple.  The 1.618 Fibonacci ratio has already been reached.

Movement above 12,883.99 would invalidate this wave count as wave (4) aqua may not move into the price territory of wave (1) aqua.  Our target should therefore be reached without the invalidation being triggered.  Once wave 3 purple is complete, then the invalidation has to move higher to the end of wave 1 purple as we would then be within wave 4 purple.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

DOW hourly alternate 2012

This alternate differs from the main hourly above only in the degree of labeling.

It expects we have only seen wave i orange within wave (v) green as complete and that we are within a second wave correction at orange degree.

I expect this wave count to be very low probability as although it is valid, it would see wave (v) green as a much larger impulse compared to waves (i) and (iii) green and therefore the impulse for wave c pink would look out of proportion.  It is more common for waves to exhibit the ‘right look’ and this is why I believe it has a very low likelihood of being correct.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

DOW hourly alternate 2012

This alternate daily wave count differs from the main daily wave count in the structure within wave (B) black.

Wave (B) black is seen as a zigzag correction. This ultimately expects one extra wave to the upside compared the main daily wave count above.

If this wave count is correct, then the downwards movement is the start of wave iv pink.  Once wave iv pink is complete, then one more impulse higher is to be seen before wave (B) black would be complete.

Movement below 12,257.67 would invalidate this wave count as wave iv pink may not move into the price territory of wave i pink.