Friday’s session saw upwards movement from the S&P 500 which is what our main wave count had expected, but momentum is unconvincing as a third wave, even a low degree one.
We should always assume that the trend remains the same, until proven otherwise. We have zero confirmation of a trend change at this stage and this is the reason why my main wave count expects the current trend to continue. We should expect targets to be reached next week.
We may use the parallel channel on the daily chart to provide confirmation of a trend change, which we shall have only when this channel is breached by a full daily candlestick below it.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th March, 2012
Yesterday’s analysis of the S&P 500 had expected upwards movement for Thursday’s session. Price moved lower to touch the parallel channel on the daily chart, before turning higher. Although this is not what we expected the wave count remains valid as price remains above the invalidation point.
At the end of Thursday’s session we now have a hammer candlestick for Thursday, indicating a low in place here.
If downwards movement invalidates our hourly wave count we may use the alternate daily wave count.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th March, 2012
Yesterday’s analysis expected upwards movement, but the small degree correction continued to move price lower. The wave count remains valid.
I have a main wave count which I consider the most likely scenario, and am expecting the trend to continue further yet towards targets calculated.
Today I have an alternate daily wave count which may be used if the main wave count is invalidated.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th March, 2012
The S&P 500 moved slightly lower, in slow sideways movement for Tuesday’s session. I had expected a small correction to begin the session, but I had expected it would be over within a very few hours. It took longer than expected.
I still have only one wave count with one daily and one hourly chart today. I expect this trend to continue for a while yet until price reaches the targets calculated.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th March, 2012
As expected from our main wave count the S&P 500 has moved higher today. We should expect the main trend to continue towards our targets.
The alternate hourly chart is looking less likely today. I will keep the possibility in mind, and if it shows itself to be correct will publish it again. At this stage though the main wave count has a significantly higher probability and I’ll use just the one chart for us.
We still have just the one daily wave count.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th March, 2012
The S&P 500 moved higher to end the trading week, which is what our last analysis had expected.
Targets have been slightly recalculated and we should expect more of the same until our targets are reached.
We still have only one daily wave count. To end the trading week I have our main hourly wave count, and an alternate which we may use if the main wave count is invalidated on the hourly chart.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd March, 2012
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The Dow has continued lower since our last analysis. Both the hourly wave counts remain valid.
We will use invalidation / confirmation points to work with our two wave counts.
Continue reading DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd March, 2012
Yesterday’s analysis expected the S&P 500 to move lower today, and our target was about 1,384. Price has fallen about 5 points short of our target, thus far.
We will use trend channels to indicate when this small correction is over.
Again we have only one daily and one hourly chart today.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd March, 2012
The S&P closed slightly lower for Wednesday’s session, but it was not the downwards movement we were expecting. This small degree fourth wave correction looks like it is taking longer than originally anticipated, but the structure is definitely corrective.
We have again only one daily and one hourly wave count. There are a couple of very low probability structures which could unfold in the very short term on the hourly chart, and these are discussed briefly with the hourly chart analysis. Only the highest probability structure is charted to keep things simple.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st March, 2012
The S&P 500 moved lower during Tuesday’s session which was exactly what our last analysis expected. This is most likely another small degree fourth wave correction. The only question now is is it over? For an answer the 5 minute chart may provide illumination.
At this stage the targets for this trend to end remain the same, but these may be refined when there is more structure and another wave degree to use in target calculation.
Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th March, 2012