DJIA Elliott Wave Analysis – 28th February, 2012

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the DJIA for 28th February, 2012. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

DOW daily 2012

This is the main daily wave count which sees waves W and X blue within wave (B) black as complete. Wave (B) black is expected to be unfolding as a double zigzag correction.

There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio within wave c pink of wave Y blue for wave (iii) green with wave (i) green. This makes it more likely that we may see a ratio for wave (v) green with either of waves (i) or (iii) green.

Within the second structure labeled Y blue waves a and b pink are complete. Within wave c pink a little further upwards movement is expected to complete wave (v) green which would likely complete the whole combination correction for wave (B) black.

At 13,231.19 wave (v) green within wave c pink would reach equality with wave (iii) green and at 13,395.44 wave c pink within wave Y blue would reach 1.618 the length of wave a pink.

Movement below 12,529.41 would invalidate this wave count as no second wave correction within wave (v) green may move beyond the start of the first wave.

DOW hourly 2012

This hourly wave count looks at the structure within wave (v) green of wave c pink.

Waves i and ii orange are expected to be complete and upwards movement as well as an increase in upwards momentum is expected within wave iii orange. We have not seen a very strong increase in momentum over the last week as the second wave labeled 2 purple was an expanded flat which moved price sideways.  It is therefore becoming very important to see this increase in upwards momentum.

Ratios within wave 1 purple of wave iii orange are: wave (3) aqua has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to wave (1) aqua and wave (5) aqua is 6.92 points longer than 2.618 the length of wave (1) aqua.

Ratios within wave 2 purple of wave iii orange are: wave (C) aqua is 9 points longer than wave (A) aqua.

At 13,134.32 wave 3 purple would reach equality with wave 1 purple. The more typical target for a third wave is the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio and therefore this is a rather conservative target.

Movement below 12,753.62 would invalidate this wave count as wave 2 purple may not move beyond the start of wave 1 purple.

We could not find a valid alternate hourly wave count which may have seen downwards movement as we can not see a complete impulse for wave (v) green yet.  We therefore expect it is highly likely that further upwards movement will be seen.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

DOW daily 2012

This alternate daily wave count differs from the main daily wave count in the structure within wave (B) black.

Wave (B) black is seen as a zigzag correction. This ultimately expects one extra wave to the upside compared the main wave count above.

Upwards movement is expected to complete wave iii pink before a larger correction for wave iv pink which is likely to see price move sideways, before the final impulse to complete wave C blue and wave (B) black.

At 13,231.19 wave (v) green would reach equality with wave (iii) green and at 13,395.44 wave iii pink would reach 1.618 the length of wave i pink.

Movement below 12,257.67 would invalidate this wave count as wave iv pink may not move into the price territory of wave i pink.