Monthly Archives: February 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th February, 2012

The S&P 500 did move higher which is what we were expecting, but it still lacks momentum and upwards movement is not convincing. Our wave count sees an incomplete structure and we should expect this trend to continue for a while yet, towards our target.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th February, 2012

DJIA Elliott Wave Analysis – 28th February, 2012

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the DJIA for 28th February, 2012. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

DOW daily 2012

This is the main daily wave count which sees waves W and X blue within wave (B) black as complete. Wave (B) black is expected to be unfolding as a double zigzag correction.

There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio within wave c pink of wave Y blue for wave (iii) green with wave (i) green. This makes it more likely that we may see a ratio for wave (v) green with either of waves (i) or (iii) green.

Within the second structure labeled Y blue waves a and b pink are complete. Within wave c pink a little further upwards movement is expected to complete wave (v) green which would likely complete the whole combination correction for wave (B) black.

At 13,231.19 wave (v) green within wave c pink would reach equality with wave (iii) green and at 13,395.44 wave c pink within wave Y blue would reach 1.618 the length of wave a pink.

Movement below 12,529.41 would invalidate this wave count as no second wave correction within wave (v) green may move beyond the start of the first wave.

DOW hourly 2012

This hourly wave count looks at the structure within wave (v) green of wave c pink.

Waves i and ii orange are expected to be complete and upwards movement as well as an increase in upwards momentum is expected within wave iii orange. We have not seen a very strong increase in momentum over the last week as the second wave labeled 2 purple was an expanded flat which moved price sideways.  It is therefore becoming very important to see this increase in upwards momentum.

Ratios within wave 1 purple of wave iii orange are: wave (3) aqua has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to wave (1) aqua and wave (5) aqua is 6.92 points longer than 2.618 the length of wave (1) aqua.

Ratios within wave 2 purple of wave iii orange are: wave (C) aqua is 9 points longer than wave (A) aqua.

At 13,134.32 wave 3 purple would reach equality with wave 1 purple. The more typical target for a third wave is the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio and therefore this is a rather conservative target.

Movement below 12,753.62 would invalidate this wave count as wave 2 purple may not move beyond the start of wave 1 purple.

We could not find a valid alternate hourly wave count which may have seen downwards movement as we can not see a complete impulse for wave (v) green yet.  We therefore expect it is highly likely that further upwards movement will be seen.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

DOW daily 2012

This alternate daily wave count differs from the main daily wave count in the structure within wave (B) black.

Wave (B) black is seen as a zigzag correction. This ultimately expects one extra wave to the upside compared the main wave count above.

Upwards movement is expected to complete wave iii pink before a larger correction for wave iv pink which is likely to see price move sideways, before the final impulse to complete wave C blue and wave (B) black.

At 13,231.19 wave (v) green would reach equality with wave (iii) green and at 13,395.44 wave iii pink would reach 1.618 the length of wave i pink.

Movement below 12,257.67 would invalidate this wave count as wave iv pink may not move into the price territory of wave i pink.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th February, 2012

With a new high above 1,367.76 the S&P 500 confirmed our main hourly wave count and invalidated our alternate.

We have just one hourly wave count to end the trading week.

We should expect this trend to continue towards our target. As more structure unfolds I will recalculate and reduce the target zone.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th February, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd February, 2012

The S&P 500 has moved lower to start the session and then it moved higher thereafter. However, it has yet to make a new high above 1,367.76 and both our our hourly wave counts remain valid. We can look at the structure of Thursday’s movement on a 5 minute chart to get more information as to which of our wave counts has a higher probability. I favour the main hourly wave count more strongly than I did yesterday with this new information.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd February, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2012

Slight downwards movement is within our allowable range for a small second wave correction, which has taken its time.

Both our main and alternate hourly wave counts remain valid as we still have no confirmation of a trend change. When one or the other is invalidated by price movement out of a narrowly defined range then we shall have a little more clarity. At this stage we should assume that the trend remains the same, until proved otherwise.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st February, 2012

Last analysis expected the S&P 500 to be highly likely to reach to 1,367 (or very slightly above) and then turn downwards. This is exactly what happened during Tuesday’s session.

We have two hourly charts today and the only difference between them is the degree of labeling. We may use the invalidation point of one to confirm the other, i.e. when one is invalidated the other will be the only wave count. With this approach we can determine what degree of trend change we may be seeing.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st February, 2012

DJIA Elliott Wave Analysis – 21st February, 2012

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the DJIA for 21st February, 2012. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

DOW monthly 2012

This monthly wave count sees the Dow within a double combination correction at dark yellow degree.

Waves (w) and (x) dark yellow are complete. The second structure labeled (y) dark yellow is therefore in progress.

Within wave (y) dark yellow we expect wave (A) black within wave A maroon of wave a teal green is complete and that a little more upwards movement is expected within wave Y blue within a double combination correction for wave (B) black.

DOW daily 2012

This is the main daily wave count which sees waves W and X blue within wave (B) black as complete. Wave (B) black is expected to be unfolding as a double zigzag correction.

There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio within wave c pink of wave Y blue for wave (iii) green with wave (i) green. This makes it more likely that we may see a ratio for wave (v) green with either of waves (i) or (iii) green.

Within the second structure labeled Y blue waves a and b pink are complete. Within wave c pink a little further upwards movement is expected to complete wave (v) green which would likely complete the whole combination correction for wave (B) black.

At 13,231.19 wave (v) green within wave c pink would reach equality with wave (iii) green and at 13,395.44 wave c pink within wave Y blue would reach 1.618 the length of wave a pink.

The trend channel is constructed about wave Y blue by making use of Elliott’s channeling technique by connecting the start of wave a pink to the end of wave b pink and placing a parallel copy at the end of wave a pink. Once we can count a five wave impulse complete for wave (v) green and we see movement and preferably a full daily candle below the bottom trend line of the trend channel, then it is highly likely that wave (B) black is complete and that we will see further downwards movement.

Movement below 12,328.47 would invalidate this wave count as wave (iv) green may not move into the price territory of wave (i) green.

DOW hourly 2012

This hourly wave count looks at the structure within within wave (v) green of wave c pink.

Waves i and ii orange are expected to be complete and upwards movement as well as an increase in upwards momentum is expected within wave iii orange.

Ratios within wave i orange are: wave 3 purple is 12.73 points longer than 1.618 the length of wave 1 purple and there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio for wave 5 purple with either of waves 1 or 3 purple.

There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio for wave C purple with wave A purple within wave ii orange.

Movement below 12,753.62 would invalidate this wave count as no second wave correction within wave iii orange may move beyond the start of the first wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

DOW hourly 2012

This alternate hourly wave count looks at the possibility that wave (B) black is complete and therefore completed sooner than our main wave count expects.

We may see a little more upwards movement to complete the final impulse, but if we see movement below 12,753.62 then this wave count would be confirmed as the main hourly would be invalidated.

Movement below the bottom trend line of the trend channel about wave (v) green would increase the likelihood that wave (B) black is complete.

It would however still be possible that we have only seen the end to wave i orange within wave (v) green and therefore further upwards movement would be expected. Once we see movement below 12,529.64 then we would have final confirmation as the downwards movement then can not be a second wave correction within wave (v) green anymore. This would provide a very strong indication that further downwards movement should be expected within very likely wave (C) black.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

DOW daily 2012

This alternate daily wave count differs from the main daily wave count in the structure within wave (B) black.

Wave (B) black is seen as a zigzag correction. This ultimately expects one extra wave to the upside compared the main wave count above.

Upwards movement is expected to complete wave iii pink before a larger correction for wave iv pink which is likely to see price move sideways, before the final impulse to complete wave C blue and wave (B) black.

At 13,231.19 wave (v) green would reach equality with wave (iii) green and at 13,395.44 wave iii pink would reach 1.618 the length of wave i pink.

Movement below 12,257.67 would invalidate this wave count as wave iv pink may not move into the price territory of wave i pink.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th February, 2012

As expected price has continued to move higher. We should expect this trend to continue towards our targets.

We still have two daily wave counts, but the alternate has a much lower probability. We will use the invalidation point of the alternate daily wave count to confirm a mid to long term trend change for the S&P 500. This trend change is still at least a week away I suspect, if not longer.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th February, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th February, 2012

We expected upwards movement to a new high, and price has made a very slight new high, but this movement looks to be a continuing correction.

The structure is still incomplete and we should see a continuation of this trend towards our targets.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th February, 2012