DJIA Elliott Wave Analysis – 30th January, 2012

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the DJIA for 30th January, 2012. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

DOW daily 2011

Wave (2) black is expected to be complete and has retraced 98.6% the length of wave (1) black. Wave (2) black is seen as a double zigzag correction.

If wave (2) black is to unfold as a larger structure then it would need to be a triple zigzag which is possible, however very unlikely as triple zigzags are very rare.

Ratios within wave c pink are: wave (iii) green has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to wave (i) green and wave (v) green is 14.91 points longer than wave (iii) green.

The trend channel is constructed about wave Y blue by connecting the start of wave a pink to the end of wave b pink and placing a parallel copy at the end of wave a pink. When the bottom trend line of this trend channel is breached with a full daily candle below it then that will greatly increase the likelihood of a trend change.

Movement above 12,876 would invalidate this wave count as wave (2) black may not move beyond the start of wave (1) black.

DOW hourly 2011

We can count a clear five wave structure to the downside labeled i orange and we expect a deeper correction for wave ii orange to likely retrace to the .618 Fibonacci ratio of wave i orange.

Once wave ii orange completes we should see a momentum increase to take price lower within wave iii orange.

Ratios within wave (v) green of wave c pink are: wave iii orange has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to wave i orange and wave v orange is .04 longer than wave i orange.

Ratios within wave i orange are: wave 3 purple has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to wave 1 purple and wave 5 purple is 8.06 longer than wave 3 purple.

The trend channel is constructed about wave c pink by connecting the end of wave (ii) green to the end of wave (iv) green and once we see a full hourly candle below this bottom trend line then that would increase our confidence in this wave count.

We already have initial confirmation of a trend change with movement below wave iv orange of wave (v) green as the downwards movement can not be a second wave within wave v orange of wave (v) green anymore.

Movement above 12,841.87 would invalidate this wave count as wave ii orange may not move beyond the start of wave i orange.

I will be looking at possible alternate wave counts that may explain the wave structure if the daily wave count is invalidated.

2 thoughts on “DJIA Elliott Wave Analysis – 30th January, 2012

    1. Dear Alok,

      Thank you for the kind words.

      The updated analysis should be published some time tomorrow.

      Apologies for the delay.

      Kind regards,
      Hugo

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