Monthly Archives: January 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2012

Movement slightly (1.35 points) above our short term invalidation point on the hourly chart has invalidated the downwards impulse movement we were expecting. Price remains below the invalidation point on the daily chart and the bigger picture remains intact; it’s just the structure of this downwards movement which is not as expected.

Overall I still expect that we have recently seen a major trend change, and price should continue lower.

We may use the parallel channel on the daily chart to provide us with final confirmation of this trend change. When we have that confirmation then my confidence in this wave count will significantly increase.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th January, 2012

The S&P 500 continues to move lower as our wave count expects. We have some initial confirmation today of a trend change on the hourly chart and I can now calculate targets. We will have final confirmation of this trend change when the channel on the daily chart is breached. At that stage we may have much greater confidence in this main wave count.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th January, 2012

DJIA Elliott Wave Analysis – 30th January, 2012

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the DJIA for 30th January, 2012. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

DOW daily 2011

Wave (2) black is expected to be complete and has retraced 98.6% the length of wave (1) black. Wave (2) black is seen as a double zigzag correction.

If wave (2) black is to unfold as a larger structure then it would need to be a triple zigzag which is possible, however very unlikely as triple zigzags are very rare.

Ratios within wave c pink are: wave (iii) green has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to wave (i) green and wave (v) green is 14.91 points longer than wave (iii) green.

The trend channel is constructed about wave Y blue by connecting the start of wave a pink to the end of wave b pink and placing a parallel copy at the end of wave a pink. When the bottom trend line of this trend channel is breached with a full daily candle below it then that will greatly increase the likelihood of a trend change.

Movement above 12,876 would invalidate this wave count as wave (2) black may not move beyond the start of wave (1) black.

DOW hourly 2011

We can count a clear five wave structure to the downside labeled i orange and we expect a deeper correction for wave ii orange to likely retrace to the .618 Fibonacci ratio of wave i orange.

Once wave ii orange completes we should see a momentum increase to take price lower within wave iii orange.

Ratios within wave (v) green of wave c pink are: wave iii orange has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to wave i orange and wave v orange is .04 longer than wave i orange.

Ratios within wave i orange are: wave 3 purple has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to wave 1 purple and wave 5 purple is 8.06 longer than wave 3 purple.

The trend channel is constructed about wave c pink by connecting the end of wave (ii) green to the end of wave (iv) green and once we see a full hourly candle below this bottom trend line then that would increase our confidence in this wave count.

We already have initial confirmation of a trend change with movement below wave iv orange of wave (v) green as the downwards movement can not be a second wave within wave v orange of wave (v) green anymore.

Movement above 12,841.87 would invalidate this wave count as wave ii orange may not move beyond the start of wave i orange.

I will be looking at possible alternate wave counts that may explain the wave structure if the daily wave count is invalidated.

S&P 500 Historical Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Currently I have three wave counts on monthly charts. The first two differ only in the structure of the next movement as they are both expecting the same downwards direction to new lows.

The second alternate I have developed in response to requests from members. However, the alternate has a couple of problems which reduce its probability to very low, in my estimation. It also expects downwards movement from this point, but this does not necessarily have to make a new low. It allows for new highs to be made first.

Continue reading S&P 500 Historical Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th January, 2012

As expected price moved lower during Friday’s session, close to the lower edge of the parallel channel on the hourly chart but falling short of that trend line a little. If price breaks through this channel next week then our wave count will increase in probability significantly. At that stage I will calculate targets for the next movement, but while we have no confirmation of a trend change it would be premature to do this.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th January, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis – 26th January, 2012

Exactly as we expected price moved higher to find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel on the hourly chart. From there price moved lower.

We have only one daily and one hourly chart today. I am working on developing an alternate daily wave count which could allow for movement above 1,359.44 (or 1,370.58). I should have one for you in the next analysis to end this week, and I expect it will have a very low probability.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis – 26th January, 2012

S&P 500 24th January, 2012

Tuesday’s session began as we had expected with a little downwards movement, which was over within 5 minutes, and ended 0.94 points below our short term target. Thereafter, price has turned back upwards as expected.

With more structure to analyse, the upwards target has been calculated now with two wave degrees. We should expect price to continue this trend towards our target, most likely, before turning downwards.

We still have two hourly wave counts. If one more is invalidated within the next day or two we shall have more confidence in our expectation of the next direction.

Continue reading S&P 500 24th January, 2012