I had expected more upwards movement to a target at 2,009.86. This is not what happened. Movement below 1,979.91 invalidated the main hourly Elliott wave count.
by Lara · July 26th, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · No Comments
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by Lara · July 24th, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · No Comments
Upwards movement was again expected from yesterday’s Elliott wave analysis. The wave count remains the same.
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by Lara · July 23rd, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · No Comments
Upwards movement was expected from yesterday’s Elliott wave analysis. The wave count remains the same.
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by Lara · July 23rd, 2014 · FTSE Analysis, FTSE Historical Analysis, Public Analysis · 1 Comment
Last analysis of FTSE expected downwards movement to complete a correction. The target was at 6,655.22. Downwards movement reached 6,643.62 (11.6 points below the target) and turned. I expect upwards movement from here to a mid term target about 6 – 8 weeks away at 7,271.
Click on charts to enlarge.
The bigger picture sees FTSE in a huge correction for a super cycle wave (II).
Super cycle wave (II) may be either a regular flat correction (labeled cycle a, b, c) or it may be a double flat or combination (labeled cycle w, x and y).
A regular flat correction would expect a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c to move at least a little below the end of cycle wave a at 3,460.71 to avoid a truncation. Cycle wave c would be expected to last from one to several years, with a shorter time frame more likely.
A double flat or combination would expect a three wave structure downwards for cycle wave y to end about the same level as cycle wave a at 3,460.71. Cycle wave y would be expected to last from one to several years, with a longer time frame more likely. It could look like a repeat of cycle wave a.
There is divergence at the monthly chart level with MACD which supports this wave count.
Cycle wave b (or x) subdivides as a zigzag and is most likely incomplete. At 7,691 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality with intermediate wave (1).
Intermediate wave (5) has begun. Sideways movement since the end of minor wave 1 at 6,894.88 is very corrective, and minor wave 2 subdivides perfectly as a zigzag. There is nice alternation within minor wave 2: minute wave a is a leading contracting diagonal and minute wave c is a swift impulse.
At 7,271 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.
Intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1) at 7,691. Intermediate wave (5) lasted seven months. So far intermediate wave (1) is in its fourth month. In another three months it may end at equality in duration with intermediate wave (1).
Upwards movement from the low at 6,643.62 is a clear five on the hourly chart. This adds confidence to this wave count.
If price breaks below 6,643.62 then minor wave 2 may be continuing as a double zigzag, flat or combination. The invalidation point would move down to 6,507.08. However, at this stage I would consider this unlikely.
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by Lara · July 22nd, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · No Comments
Movement above 1,324.73 has confirmed the main Elliott wave hourly wave count and invalidated the alternate.
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