Analysis of AAPL at the beginning of this week expected upwards movement extremely likely to move above 469.95. Price did not move higher, and although the wave count is not yet invalidated at the hourly chart level it does not look right. I have adjusted the wave count at minor degree today.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (2) failed to move above the high of minor wave A at 469.95 and has completed as a rare running flat.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave C is just 2.17 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave A.

At 289.78 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When there is more structure within intermediate wave (3) to analyse I will add a target calculation at minor degree for it to end, so this target will probably change.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave C subdivides perfectly as an impulse.

Ratios within minor wave C are: minute wave iii is 3.97 longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is 1.21 longer than equality with minute wave i. This is a most typical impulsive structure which adds confidence that this wave count is correct.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.07 short of 0.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) within minute wave iii are: subminuette wave iii is 1.41 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.42 short of 0.382 the length of subminuette wave (iii).

Ratios within minute wave v are: minuette wave (iii) is 1.24 longer than 4.236 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.19 short of equality with minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) within minute wave v are: subminuette wave iii is just 0.13 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.51 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Ratios within subminuette wave v of minuette wave (iii) of minute wave v are: micro wave 3 is 0.42 short of 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.36 longer than 0.618 the length of micro wave 1.

A channel drawn about minor wave C using Elliott’s technique fits this movement perfectly and is now clearly breached.

Within the new downwards movement to begin intermediate wave (3) the first impulse downwards is incomplete. Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave iii is just 0.02 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i. At 413.75 subminuette wave v would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

We may draw a channel about minuette wave (iii) downwards. Draw the first trend line from the highs of subminuette waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low of subminuette wave iii. I would expect subminuette wave v to end about midway within this channel, or to find support about the lower edge if it moves down that low.

Within minutte wave (iii) if subminuette wave iv moves any higher it may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 450.48.

This video is different from how I normally present my analysis. I have been asked to show how I use Motive Wave, and how I decide on a wave count. I have tried to do both here.

This video is simply a recording of how I did today’s AAPL analysis. It is over 20 minutes because that’s how long the process took today.

* my wallpaper is a picture of a Kakapo named Sirocco. He’s a member of one of the rarest species of parrot in the world, there are only 125 Kakapo left. They can survive over 100 years and breed infrequently. Kakapo are flightless and have a really weird “boom” for a mating call.