Elliott Wave Stock Market Technical Analysis by Lara

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1st October, 2014 – S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Video

by Lara · October 2nd, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · 1 Comment

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S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st October, 2014

by Lara · October 2nd, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · No Comments

Downwards movement has brought price to touch the upper aqua blue trend line.

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Russell 2000 Elliott Wave Analysis – 1st October, 2014

by Lara · October 1st, 2014 · Russell 2000, Russell 2000 Historical · No Comments

Click on charts to enlarge.

Russell 2000 monthly 2013

Data available extends back only to the end of 1987. Data begins with the 1987 “crash” which I am labeling a cycle degree second wave correction.

A five wave impulse for a super cycle wave (I) ended in March, 2000.

Ratios of cycle degree waves within super cycle wave (I) cannot be accurately calculated without all data from the start of Russell 2000 in 1984.

Super cycle wave (II) is seen as a complete expanded flat correction, with a shorter than usual C wave (which is not truncated because it does move very slightly below the end of cycle wave a). Cycle wave c is 45.87 points longer than 1.618 the length of cycle wave a, a variation just less than 10% and so acceptable. Super cycle wave (II) is a 50% correction of super cycle wave (I). Super cycle wave (I) lasted longer than 12 years (it begins when Russell 2000 began) and super cycle wave (II) lasted 9 years.

At 1,691 super cycle wave (III) would reach 1.618 the length of super cycle wave (I).

I am changing my wave count for RUT within super cycle wave (III) to see cycle wave III as over and cycle wave IV underway. Cycle wave III is 26.76 short of 1.618 the length of cycle wave I.

Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 745.95.

Russell 2000 weekly 2013

Super cycle wave (III) is incomplete. Within it cycle wave III is probably complete.

Cycle wave IV looks like it is subdividing as a flat or combination. Within it primary wave B should move higher and may make a new high above 1,213.55. Cycle wave IV may find support at the lower edge of the channel.

Draw the channel using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the highs of cycle waves I to III, then place a parallel copy on the low of cycle wave II.

Cycle wave II was a shallow 39% zigzag lasting 10 weeks. Cycle wave IV is showing alternation in depth and structure. So far it has lasted 13 weeks and it is not quite halfway through.

Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 745.95.

Russell 2000 daily 2013

The final fifth wave of primary wave 5 to complete cycle wave III subdivides perfectly as a five wave impulse.

The downwards movement for primary wave A fits best as a zigzag, with an expanded flat for intermediate wave (B) in the middle. This sees the downwards movement labeled minor wave B within intermediate wave (B) as a zigzag which has a better fit than my last analysis. However, it is very difficult to see the upwards wave of minor wave C within intermediate wave (B) as a five because the middle of the third wave does not fit. I suspect something is wrong in my wave count at the beginning of this movement, within minute wave i and minuette wave (i), but I cannot move the time frame for this data down to see the subdivisions on the hourly chart.

Intermediate wave (C) subdivides perfectly as a completed impulse. The final fifth wave may yet move lower. Draw a channel about intermediate wave (C): draw the first trend line from the ends of minor waves 1 to 3, then place a parallel copy on the end of minor wave 2. Only when this small channel is clearly breached by at least one daily candlestick above it and not touching the upper trend line will I have any confidence that primary wave A is over.

If cycle wave IV is subdividing as a flat correction then within it primary wave B must reach up to a minimum 90% length of primary wave A at 1,202.36. If primary wave A moves lower this point must be recalculated.

If cycle wave IV is unfolding as a combination then primary wave X has no minimum upwards point.

For both a flat or combination the upwards wave of B or X may make a new high above the start of primary wave A at 1,213.55. There is no upper invalidation point.

B and X waves can be time consuming. I would expect it to last about 13 weeks or longer.

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30th September, 2014 – S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Video

by Lara · October 1st, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · No Comments

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S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2014

by Lara · October 1st, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · No Comments

Upwards movement made a new high. Thereafter, price turned down but remained above the invalidation point on the hourly chart.

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29th September, 2014 – S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Video

by Lara · September 29th, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · No Comments

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S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th September, 2014

by Lara · September 29th, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · 3 Comments

A slight new low fitted the alternate hourly Elliot wave count and invalidated the main hourly Elliott wave count.

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S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th September, 2014- Update

by Lara · September 29th, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · No Comments

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DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th September, 2014

by Lara · September 29th, 2014 · DOW Analysis Weekly, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · No Comments

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26th September, 2014 – S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Video

by Lara · September 27th, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · 11 Comments

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S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th September, 2014

by Lara · September 27th, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · No Comments

I had expected more downwards movement for Friday’s session. This is not what happened. Upwards movement breached the invalidation point on the hourly Elliott wave chart.

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S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th September, 2014

by Lara · September 26th, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · No Comments

Movement below 1,978.63 invalidated the main hourly wave count and confirmed the first alternate. The target then was at 1,968. Price reached down to 1,966.56.

Summary: The structure is incomplete. I expect more downwards movement to a target at 1,953. Price should not touch the upper of the two aqua blue trend lines on the daily chart.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Bullish Wave Count

S&P 500 daily 2014

The aqua blue trend lines are critical. Draw the first trend line from the low of 1,158.66 on 25th November, 2011, to the next swing low at 1,266.74 on 4th June, 2012. Create a parallel copy and place it on the low at 1,560.33 on 24th June, 2013. While price remains above the lower of these two aqua blue trend lines we must assume the trend remains upwards. This is the main reason for the bullish wave count being my main wave count.

There are a couple of things about this wave count of which I am confident. I see minor wave 3 within intermediate wave (1) as over at 1,729.86 (19th September, 2013). It has the strongest upwards momentum and is just 0.76 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1. At 455 days duration this is a remarkably close Fibonacci ratio. The subdivisions within it are perfect. If this is correct then minor wave 4 ends at 1,646.47 and this is where minor wave 5 begins.

Within minor wave 5 there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute wave i and iii. This makes it more likely that minute wave v will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of i or iii. When minute wave iv is over I will calculate targets upwards for minute wave v to end. The target would be for intermediate wave (1) to complete at all wave degrees.

Minor wave 5 is unfolding as an impulse. If minor wave 5 has passed its middle then I would expect to see more divergence between price and MACD develop over coming weeks.

Minute wave ii lasted 14 sessions and was a relatively deep 55% zigzag correction. Minute wave iv is showing alternation as a shallow flat correction.

The large maroon – – – channel is copied over from the weekly chart. It is drawn in exactly the same way on bull and bear wave counts. For the bull wave count this channel is termed a base channel about primary waves 1 and 2. A lower degree second wave should not breach the lower edge of a base channel drawn about a first and second wave one or more degrees higher. The lower maroon – – – trend line differentiates the bull and bear wave counts at cycle degree and monthly chart level.

S&P 500 hourly 2014

Minute wave iv is an expanded flat correction. So far minuette wave (b) is a 125% correction of minuette wave (a). Minuette wave (c) has passed 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a) and the structure is incomplete. I do not think minuette wave (c) will reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (a) because this would see the upper aqua blue trend line breached.

The target is best calculated at subminuette wave degree.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i. This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio for subminuette wave v. At 1,953 subminuette wave v would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Subminuette wave iii is shorter than subminuette wave i. Because a third wave may never be the shortest wave this limits subminuette wave v to no longer than equality with subminuette wave iii at 1,940.90.

Draw a parallel channel about minuette wave (c) using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the lows labeled subminuette waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy on the high labeled subminuette wave ii. Subminuette wave v should end at the lower trend line.

When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement that shall be first indication that minute wave iv is over and minute wave v has begun. Subsequent movement above 1,978.63 would provide price confirmation at that stage as upwards movement could not be a fourth wave correction within minuette wave (c), so minuette wave (c) would have to be over.

While minuette wave (c) is incomplete subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory above 1,978.63.

S&P 500 5 minute 2014

Bearish Alternate Wave Count

S&P 500 daily bear 2014

To see the difference between bull and bear wave counts they must be viewed on monthly charts here and video here.

The differentiation between the bull and bear wave count is the maroon – – – channel. The bull wave count should see price remain above the lower maroon – – – trend line. The bear wave count requires a clear breach of this trend line. If this trend line is breached by a full weekly candlestick below it and not touching it then this bear wave count would be my main wave count and I would then calculate downwards targets.

We should always assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise; the trend is your friend. While price remains above the lower maroon – – – trend line I will assume that the S&P 500 remains within a bull market.

This analysis is published about 09:07 p.m. EST.

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25th September, 2014 – S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Video

by Lara · September 26th, 2014 · SPX500 Analysis Daily, SPX500 Daily & DJIA Weekly · No Comments

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