Nasdaq Composite Elliott Wave Analysis – 28th June, 2015

(Mostly) charts only today.

Bull Wave Count

Nasdaq Composite monthly 2015
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Nasdaq Composite weekly 2015
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Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
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Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 4,116.60. However, if the bull trend line (aqua blue) is breached by a close of 3% or more of market value, then this wave count should be discarded.

Daily Bull Alternate

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
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By simply moving the last impulse up one degree, it is possible that Nasdaq has just seen a cycle degree trend change. This idea requires confirmation with a close 3% or more of market value below the bull market trend line.

Bear Wave Count

Nasdaq Composite monthly 2015
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The bear wave count just moves everything from the all time high at 5,132.52 all down one degree. Super cycle wave (II) may be an incomplete flat or combination.

Nasdaq Composite weekly 2015
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Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
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Technical Analysis

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
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ADX is below 20 and flat indicating low volatility, very short swings, and no clear trend.

An upwards trend is still favoured while price is above the 34 day EMA and particularly above the bull trend line. A parallel copy of the bull trend line is created to show where price is currently finding support.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th June, 2015 – Grand Supercycle

Second S&P 500 Grand SuperCycle Elliott wave analysis, from 1871.

Summary: This is my second attempt at a long term analysis for the S&P500; the two wave counts presented here are an improvement from the first attempt. The bull wave count ignores the 1840’s depression and for this reason the bear count which includes it may have a higher probability.

Bullish Wave Count

S&P 500 historic 2015
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The data prior to the inception of the S&P500 index is an amalgamation of the US stock market back to that date.

There are two approaches to the S&P500 long term analysis: either look only at data since the inception of the S&P500 in 1957, or to include an amalgamation of the entire US stock market before that date as part of the analysis. I have chosen to look at the entire market.

The data I have only goes back to 1871. This bull wave count assumes up to the market peak of 1929 a five wave impulse can be counted. This may have been a Super Cycle wave (I), and the Great Depression a Super Cycle wave (II) correction. If this assumption is wrong, then the bull wave count would not work.

If Super Cycle wave (III) began at the end of the Great Depression in 1933, then it may have ended recently in 2000. Super Cycle wave (III) would have lasted 67 years and moved price 1,523 points.

Within Super Cycle wave (III), there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between cycle waves I, III and V. Cycle wave II is a deep 0.82 zigzag lasting 5 years, and cycle wave IV is a shallow 0.25 expanded flat lasting 9 years. There is perfect alternation between cycle waves II and IV.

Super Cycle wave (II) lasted only four years (a relatively deep quick zigzag). Super Cycle wave (IV) may be over as a more shallow flat correction, lasting 8.5 years. There is perfect alternation between Super Cycle waves (II) and (IV).

This wave count expects that Super Cycle wave (V) is underway to finally end Grand Super Cycle wave I.

It may be that a cycle degree third wave is about to complete, rather than a primary degree third wave, so the degree of labelling for the daily bull wave count may need to be moved up one degree.

Bear Wave Count

S&P 500 historic bear 2015
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This bear wave count expects that the Depression of the 1840’s was a Super Cycle wave (II) and the Great Depression of the 1930’s was its counterpart Super Cycle wave (IV). From an historic perspective both depressions were significant, so this idea makes more sense.

The rise since the end of the Great Depression in 1933 would be a Super Cycle wave (V). Which means that a Grand Super Cycle wave I may have ended in 2000.

Within Super Cycle wave (V), the subdivisions are seen in the same way as for the bull wave count. There are no adequate Fibonacci ratios at cycle degree, but there is perfect alternation between cycle waves II and IV.

If Grand Super Cycle wave II began there, then it would most likely be incomplete. Grand Super Cycle waves should last generations, not just 8.5 years. The first flat correction would most likely be Super Cycle wave (A) of an expanded flat. But it may also be Super Cycle wave (W) of a double flat or combination.

This analysis means that the degree of labelling for the bear wave count at the daily chart level should also be moved up one degree.

This analysis is published about 04:50 a.m. EST.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd June, 2015

The main Elliott wave count expected overall more upwards movement with corrections to find support at the lower edge of the channel on the hourly chart.

A small green candlestick for Wednesday fits the main Elliott wave count, and the lower edge of the channel is close to where price is finding support.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd June, 2015

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd June, 2015 – Grand Supercycle

S&P 500 Grand SuperCycle Elliott wave analysis, from 1871.

Summary: The bear wave count has a better overall look.

Bullish Wave Count

S&P 500 historic 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The data prior to the inception of the S&P500 index is an amalgamation of the US stock market back to that date.

There are two approaches to the S&P500 long term analysis: either look only at data since the inception of the S&P500 in 1957, or to include an amalgamation of the entire US stock market before that date as part of the analysis. I have chosen to look at the entire market.

The bull count looks more forced than the bear.

I have a Grand Super Cycle wave ending at the market peak of 24.86 in 1929. This is the same for both wave counts in this analysis. This assumes lower lows for the start of Grand Super Cycle wave I which are not on this chart. The length of Super Cycle wave (I) cannot be known so the ratios within Grand Super Cycle I cannot be calculated.

The Great Depression is seen for both bull and bear counts as a Grand Super Cycle wave II correction.

Thereafter, the wave counts look at the following upwards movement differently.

The bull count sees Grand Super Cycle wave III as incomplete.

Within Grand Super Cycle wave III, Super Cycle waves (I) and (II) are complete and Super Cycle wave (III) is within its fifth wave.

Grand Super Cycle wave III begins at 7.09 in 1933. Super Cycle wave (I) ends at 17.59 in 1937, and Super Cycle wave (II) ends and Super Cycle wave (III) begins at 8.93 in 1942.

Within Super Cycle wave (III), cycle wave I ends at 18.02 in 1946, and was 9.09 in length. Cycle wave II was a quick shallow 0.35 zigzag.

Cycle wave III ends at 1,530.09 in 2000, and was 1,515.26 in length.

Cycle wave IV ends at 666.79 in March 2009, a 0.57 correction of cycle wave III, and subdivides as a flat providing perfect alternation with cycle wave II.

Cycle wave V is subdividing as a simple impulse. Within it, primary wave 3 is nearing its end and primary wave 4 has not yet unfolded.

The biggest problem I can see with this wave count is that it must see the huge correction which unfolded during the 1970’s as a primary degree correction within cycle wave III.

Bear Wave Count

S&P 500 historic bear 2015
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The bear wave count is identical to the bull wave count up to the start of Grand Super Cycle wave III.

Within Super Cycle wave (I) of Grand Super Cycle wave III, cycle wave I ends at 17.59 in 1937, and was 10.50 in length. Cycle wave II is a 0.49 correction subdividing as a zigzag. Cycle wave III begins at 8.93 in 1942, ends at 93.32 in 1966, and was 84.39 in length. There is no Fibonacci ratio between cycle waves I and III.

Cycle wave IV looks like a flat correction which was a 0.24 depth of cycle wave III. There is perfect alternation between the deeper zigzag of cycle wave II and the shallow flat of cycle wave IV.

Cycle wave V ends at 1,530.01 in September 2000. For the bear wave count this ends Super Cycle wave (I) and so currently Super Cycle wave (II) would be unfolding as either a flat, double flat or combination.

Super Cycle wave (I) is 1,522.92 in length. A possible target for Super Cycle wave (II) to end would be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 581.76.

This analysis is published about 05:24 a.m. EST.